413
FXUS61 KOKX 190726
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
326 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moves into New England today into tonight with the
trailing cold front swinging offshore. An upper level low with a
surface trough lingers through Tuesday. High pressure builds in
thereafter through the remainder of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The heaviest of the rain across Long Island has shifted eastward,
with some drier conditions moving into the hardest hit areas.
Flood warnings continue with multiple on-going flood related
rescues/emergencies.

Otherwise, lingering showers are anticipated more so across
eastern sections through the remainder of the morning. Any
pockets of heavier rain / showers pivot east and offshore
through the early afternoon. Expect a good deal of cloud cover
through the day as upper level troughing continues to prevail.
Towards the late morning and early afternoon expect more in the
way of breaks of sun, with mostly cloudy skies prevailing on
average through the day. CAMs show another line of moderate to
embedded heavier showers forming along a surface convergence
line / trough in combination with peak diurnal heating. This
should lead to another round of showers, with a thunderstorm or
two for the afternoon hours. The activity is not expected to be
as widespread with lower coverage compared to the previous 24
hours. Unfortunately with the wet antecedent conditions it would
not take much to cause flooding issues in locations previously
hit with heavy rain , thus SPC continues a marginal excessive
rainfall threat driven by the antecedent conditions. PWATs
gradually lower through the day as low level winds become more
westerly leading to lower level drier air working in gradually
for the late day, and more so into the early evening. CAPE
values should average between 500 and 1200 J/kg depending on
your guidance of choice, with CAPE decreasing further from west
to east late in the day. SPC has a marginal risk of severe
weather through the afternoon. The limiting factor with
organized and longer lived convection is the lack of 0-6km shear
in forecast soundings. Seasonable temperatures are expected
with daytime temperatures primarily in the lower 80s, with a few
middle 80s across the NYC and NE NJ metro.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Expect mainly cloudy skies to linger through tonight with a
good deal of moisture / higher RH trapped below multiple weak
inversion in the profile with the low end chance of a few
showers across the region. Much of the night should be dry with
just a few hit and miss showers. Lows will be primarily in the
lower and middle 60s, with perhaps a few upper 50s well to the
NW.

Upper level troughing remains across the northeast on Tuesday.
However the lower levels will be quite dry on a NW flow.
Therefore look for primarily dry conditions. However, there will
be and inversion at around 7 kft or so. Therefore broken clouds
could linger for a portion of the day. A much cooler and less
humid feel will be the story with dew points in the 50s and
daytime maximum temperatures only in the lower and middle 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A drier, cooler pattern will continue into mid week behind a
frontal system as dry air advects south, with surface high
pressure building in. Lingering upper trough over the Northeast
may persist into late week, reinforced by a closed low dropping
south out of Canada.

This high will be accompanied with primarily N-NW winds and a much
cooler regime. Highs temps Wed will be in the 70s, with low temps
Wed AM and Thu AM in the 50s to near 60. Some interior spots as well
as in the Long Island Pine Barrens could bottom out in the upper 40s
by daybreak Thu depending on the strength of any radiational
cooling. Temperatures will gradually moderate into late week and the
weekend with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s by Fri, and
well into the 80s next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal system slowly moves across the terminals through
Monday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of NYC this morning
and will mainly impact just KGON through early morning.

We are starting to see more VFR conditions across NYC with lower
conditions where the rainfall is still occurring. However, lower
flight categories are being observed west of NYC, so can not
rule out lower conditions moving back into NYC.

Any lower conditions that develop this morning will improve to
VFR late mid to late morning into the afternoon with the
potential of another round of showers and thunderstorms late
afternoon and evening.

Winds will mainly be S to SE early this morning, but a period
of NE winds is expected at NYC terminals. Winds begin to shift
toward the SW this morning. Winds shift to the W and NW behind
the cold front passage this evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may be variable for several hours through 10z.

Timing of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening
may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms ending in the
evening. VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers, mainly in the
morning, with MVFR possible. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small craft advisories continue on the ocean waters through
Tuesday with seas above 5 ft on a NW wind gusting up to around
20 kt. Ocean seas are expected to subside closer to 4 ft late
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The rough ocean seas and long period swells come from distant
tropical cyclone Ernesto as it passes well northeast of the area
in the open Atlantic. This is also leading to rough conditions
around inlets. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for
official forecasts regarding Ernesto.

Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are then expected with high
pressure moving into the area by midweek.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Significant flooding event ongoing across central Long Island
with rainfall amounts overnight between 6-10 inches.

Additional rain today into tonight looks to be more localized,
with just a marginal flash flood threat. Otherwise, minor
flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas.

No hydrologic concerns expected thereafter Tuesday through next
weekend.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk is in place through Tuesday due to
elevated, long period swells from Ernesto.

Ocean seas are forecast to be highest through Monday, and with
surf heights up to 6 ft, local beach erosion is possible.

A full moon today as well as swell from distant Ernesto will
also elevate total water levels this week.

Additional minor flooding is possible with the high tide cycles
(especially the evening/nighttime cycles) through much of this
week. Additional advisories/statements will likely be needed.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...BC/JE
SHORT TERM...BC/JE
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...