171
FXUS61 KOKX 200741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure pulls away to the northeast today and into Nova Scotia
tonight. High pressure gradually builds across through mid week.
High pressure will remain the predominate feature Thursday
through much of the weekend. High pressure may lose hold as weak
low pressure passes to our north late Sunday into early next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level low slides across the Eastern Great Lakes and pivots
into Upstate New York. The lower and middle levels by and large will
continue to dry out with a noticeably drier NW flow regime setting
up across the area. The most noticeable change is the lowering of
dew points across the region from west to east throughout today and
into tonight. Dew points fall into the much more comfortable 50s
today, with some dew points getting into the upper 40s across
northern and northwestern areas tonight. With the cooler air mass in
place and scattered to broken clouds indicated by BUFKIT profiles
and steep low level lapse rates, expect temperatures to reach the
mainly the middle 70s today, with a few pockets of lower 70s in
spots resulting in temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees below
average. The lower levels should be dry enough for today into
tonight to preclude any rain shower activity despite some spokes of
upper level energy from the upper level low swinging through.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper and mid level trough axis will swing through during
Wednesday. Despite this, predominantly dry weather continues
for the mid week. There is only a slight chance of a few widely
scattered showers for mainly northern locations Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, mainly just some low level fair weather clouds can
be expected from time to time with the lower and mid levels
being relatively dry and synoptic scale sinking motion
increasing overall as high pressure will continue to gradually
build from the west. Dew point readings will remain in the
comfortable 50s providing seasonably cool weather for this time
of year. Day time temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below
average Wednesday with mainly lower and middle 70s for day time
maxes, and temperatures Wednesday night running below average
with night time mins in the lower 50s across the interior and
upper 50s closer to the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
previous forecast/NBM.

Surface high pressure builds into the region from the Great Lakes on
Thursday and remains in place through much of the weekend. This will
lead to an extended period of dry weather. A trough exits to the
east late Thursday and early Friday as a ridge takes over. This will
lead to gradually warming temperatures. NW flow continues on
Thursday under high pressure keep high temperatures in the upper to
low 70s. Upper 70s to lower 80s return on Friday as ridging builds
aloft and surface winds become more westerly, eventually
southwesterly by the afternoon. Westerly to southerly flow continues
into the weekend allowing for further warming with highs in the
low/mid-80s.

Global models are not in a consensus late Sunday into Monday. The
GFS has a trough develop over the area while the ECMWF have the
trough farther displaced from our area, mainly to the northeast then
east. Only the GFS solution would bring a chance for rain. Given the
divergence in model guidance, have kept POPs out of of the ending
periods in the extended forecast.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds into the region today and tonight.

Mainly VFR. There is a chance for an isolated light shower or
sprinkle overnight. There may also be brief periods of MVFR
ceilings around 2.5-3kft.

Winds will remain NW through the TAF period. Wind speeds around
10 kt overnight. Winds then increase after day break, becoming
10-15kt with gusts around 20 kt. The gusts could end up
occasional and any gusts likely end in the evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Can not rule out an occasional gust early this morning.

MVFR ceilings around 030 possible overnight.

Gusts may be occasional today.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: A gust G15-20kt possible in the evening. VFR.

Wednesday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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A NW flow prevails in the wake of a cold front. A pressure gradient
exists with the cold front offshore and building high pressure to
the west. Mainly sub small craft conditions, with marginal small
craft conditions at times through today for the ocean with gusts to
around 20 kt which also includes the near shore coastal waters.
Thus have left up a small craft advisory through 16z for the
western and central ocean zones, and until 18z for the eastern
most ocean. Otherwise sub small craft conditions prevail for
Tuesday night and through the upcoming weekend as high pressure
builds into the coastal waters.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrological impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk is in place through 8 pm this evening
due to elevated, long period swells from Ernesto.

With a full moon earlier this week and higher astronomical
tides lingering expect minor coastal flood benchmarks to be
approached or slightly exceeded for tonight`s high tide cycle
across SW CT and the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens. This
is being handled with coastal flood statements. Elsewhere minor
benchmarks are not expected to be approached.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...