010
FXUS61 KOKX 201704
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
104 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pulls away to the northeast today. High pressure
gradually builds across through mid week. High pressure will
remain the predominate feature Thursday through much of the
weekend. High pressure may lose hold as weak low pressure passes
to our north late Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Main change this update was to decrease cloud cover today. This
seems prudent with a strong inversion at 800 mb, dry low-levels,
and subsident NW flow off of Catskills. Stratocu development to
the NW of the Lower Hudson Valley quite extensive on latest
satellite imagery, but struggling to get into the area, except
for SE CT.
Otherwise, the upper low drops into northern NY state later
today. The lower and middle levels by and large will continue to
dry out with a noticeably drier NW flow regime setting up
across the area. The most noticeable change is the lowering of
dew points across the region from west to east throughout today
and into tonight. Dew points fall into the much more comfortable
40s and 50s today. Highs are forecast to get into the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with spots in an around the NYC metro a bit
warmer. This is about 5 to 10 degrees below average. The lower
levels should be dry enough for today into tonight to preclude
any rain shower activity despite some spokes of upper level
energy from the upper level low swinging through.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper and mid level trough axis will swing through during
Wednesday. Despite this, predominantly dry weather continues
for the mid week. There is only a slight chance of a few widely
scattered showers for mainly northern locations Wed afternoon.
Otherwise, mainly just some low level fair weather clouds can
be expected from time to time with the lower and mid levels
being relatively dry and synoptic scale sinking motion
increasing overall as high pressure will continue to gradually
build from the west. Dew point readings will remain in the
comfortable 50s providing seasonably cool weather for this time
of year. Day time temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below
average Wednesday with mainly lower and middle 70s for day time
maxes, and temperatures Wednesday night running below average
with night time mins in the lower 50s across the interior and
upper 50s closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
previous forecast/NBM.
Surface high pressure builds into the region from the Great Lakes on
Thursday and remains in place through much of the weekend. This will
lead to an extended period of dry weather. A trough exits to the
east late Thursday and early Friday as a ridge takes over. This will
lead to gradually warming temperatures. NW flow continues on
Thursday under high pressure keep high temperatures in the upper to
low 70s. Upper 70s to lower 80s return on Friday as ridging builds
aloft and surface winds become more westerly, eventually
southwesterly by the afternoon. Westerly to southerly flow continues
into the weekend allowing for further warming with highs in the
low/mid-80s.
Global models are not in a consensus late Sunday into Monday. The
GFS has a trough develop over the area while the ECMWF have the
trough farther displaced from our area, mainly to the northeast then
east. Only the GFS solution would bring a chance for rain. Given the
divergence in model guidance, have kept POPs out of of the ending
periods in the extended forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds into the region today and tonight.
Mainly VFR.
Winds will remain NW through the TAF period. Wind speeds around
10 kt increase to 10-15kt with gusts around 20 kt. The gusts
could end up occasional and any gusts likely end in the evening.
Winds become 10kt or less once again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional today.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Based on latest obs and guidance, all SCAs on the ocean have
been discontinued.
A NW flow prevails in the wake of a cold front. A pressure
gradient exists with the cold front offshore and building high
pressure to the west. Mainly sub small craft conditions today
with gusts to around 20 kt. Otherwise, sub small craft
conditions prevail through the upcoming weekend as high
pressure builds into the coastal waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A high rip current risk is in place through 8 pm this evening
due to elevated, long period swells from Ernesto.
With a full moon earlier this week and higher astronomical
tides lingering expect minor coastal flood benchmarks to be
approached or slightly exceeded for tonight`s high tide cycle
across SW CT and the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens. This
is being handled with coastal flood statements. Elsewhere minor
benchmarks are not expected to be approached.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BC/JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...