707
FXUS61 KOKX 201957
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A broad area of low pressure along the New England coast into the
Canadian Maritime will be slow to lift to the northeast the next
couple of days. At the same time, high pressure over the Great
Lakes will nudge ever so slowly east toward the area and become
the predominate feature by the end of the week. Low pressure
will be near or over the area Sunday into Monday with a weak
cold front. High pressure follows on Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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This will be a relatively benign period of weather as we head
through the rest of the week. An upper low descends across
Upstate NY tonight, but remains north of the area. A subsident
NW flow off the Catskills should keep skies mostly clear tonight
with occasional NW gusts 15 up to 20 mph. Lows will be about 7
to 10 degrees below normal, generally in the 50s. A few of the
normally colder spots may drop into the upper 40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The upper low passes just north of the area on Wednesday and
then gradually lifts to the north across northern New England
into Thursday. Steepening lapse rates and cyclonic flow should
result in increasing clouds late morning into the afternoon
with an isolated shower possible, mainly across the interior.
It will remain unseasonably cool with temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s. A few spots may get into the mid 70s. Occasional
gusts from the WNW up to 20 mph will continue, mainly in the
afternoon. Not much change expected Wednesday night into Thursday
with a less cloud cover and dry conditions. Temperatures will
be slightly warmer on Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A trough aloft exits east Thursday night into Friday as ridging
moves in from the west. Surface high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes around this time frame. A weak ridge aloft with surface
high pressure remains over the region through Saturday.

Warm air advection is expected to gradually occur Friday into
Saturday with winds turning from northwest to south and west on
Friday and remaining that way on Saturday. This will lead to high
temperatures returning to the 80s, closer to climatological
averages. Dewpoints will also increase Friday into Saturday with the
influence of the onshore flow. Overall, it should remain dry and
mostly sunny Friday and Saturday due to general subsidence over the
region from high pressure.

After Saturday, global models diverge on their solutions of a low
pressure system that may descend from Quebec on Sunday. The GFS
resolves a deepening low pressure system with a deepening trough
aloft in New England on Sunday and into our area Monday, bringing a
weak cold front Monday afternoon/evening, then exiting to the
southeast on Tuesday. Should this solution transpire, expecting
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening. The GDPS and ICON have a similar solution to the GFS,
except with a weaker low low, which would minimize rain coverage.
Given the divergence in model guidance, have kept POPs 15-20% for
the area Monday afternoon/evening. Dry weather is likely to follow
on Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds into the region through the period.

VFR.

Wind speeds around 10-15kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt
through this afternoon. The gusts will likely end this evening with
winds remaining out of the NW around 10kt or less tonight, then
between 10-15 kt on Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts end times may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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With high pressure slowly building in from the west through the
end of the week, expect sub small craft conditions through the
upcoming weekend.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk is in place through 8 pm this evening
due to elevated, long period swells from Ernesto. The risk
decreases to moderate on Wednesday and then low on Thursday as
swells diminish.

With a full moon earlier this week and higher astronomical
tides lingering expect minor coastal flood benchmarks to be
approached or slightly exceeded for tonight`s high tide cycle
across SW CT and the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens. This
is being handled with coastal flood statements. Elsewhere,
minor benchmarks are not expected to be approached.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...