658
FXUS61 KOKX 210500
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
100 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad low pressure area extending from the New England coast
into the Canadian Maritimes will be slow to lift to the
northeast the next couple of days. At the same time, high
pressure over the Great Lakes will nudge ever so slowly east
toward the area and become the dominant feature by the end of
the week. Low pressure will be near or over the area Sunday
into Monday with a weak cold front. High pressure will follow on
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to the forecast database through the
overnight as the forecast remains on track.
This will be a relatively benign period of weather as we head
through the rest of the week. An upper low descends across
Upstate NY tonight, but remains north of the area. A subsident
NW flow off the Catskills should keep skies mostly clear
overnight. Lows will be about 7-10 degrees below normal,
generally in the 50s. A few of the normally colder spots may
drop into the upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The upper low passes just north of the area on Wednesday and
then gradually lifts to the north across northern New England
into Thursday. Steepening lapse rates and cyclonic flow should
result in increasing clouds late morning into the afternoon with
an isolated shower possible, mainly across the interior.
It will remain unseasonably cool with temperatures in the upper
60s/lower 70s. A few spots may get into the mid 70s.
Occasional gusts from the WNW up to 20 mph will continue, mainly
in the afternoon.
Not much change expected Wednesday night into Thursday, with
less cloud cover and dry conditions. Temperatures will be
slightly warmer on Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A trough aloft exits east Thursday night into Friday as ridging
moves in from the west. Surface high pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes around this time frame. A weak ridge aloft with
surface high pressure remains over the region through Saturday.
Warm air advection is expected to gradually occur Friday into
Saturday with winds turning from northwest to south and west
on Friday and remaining that way on Saturday. This will lead to
high temperatures returning to the 80s, closer to climatological
averages. Dewpoints will also increase Friday into Saturday
with the influence of the onshore flow. Overall, it should
remain dry and mostly sunny Friday and Saturday due to general
subsidence over the region from high pressure.
After Saturday, global models diverge on their solutions of a
low pressure system that may descend from Quebec on Sunday.
The GFS resolves a deepening low pressure system with a
deepening trough aloft in New England on Sunday and into our
area Monday, bringing a weak cold front Monday
afternoon/evening, then exiting to the southeast on Tuesday.
Should this solution transpire, expecting isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
evening. The GDPS and ICON have a similar solution to the GFS,
except with a weaker low, which would minimize rain coverage.
Given the divergence in model guidance, have kept PoP at 15-20%
for Monday afternoon/evening. Dry weather is likely to follow
on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure slowly builds in.
Diminishing NW winds tonight should pick up in the morning to
around 10 kt, then to 10-15 kt with some gusts either side of
20 kt in the afternoon. Some gusts up to 25 kt late in the
afternoon possible at the NYC metros. BKN cigs expected in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected attm.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure slowly building in from the west, expect sub
advisory conditions through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk decreases to moderate on Wednesday and
then low on Thursday as swells diminish.
With a full moon earlier this week and higher astronomical
tides lingering expect minor coastal flood benchmarks to be
approached or slightly exceeded for tonight`s high tide cycle
across SW CT and the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens.
This is being handled with coastal flood statements.
Elsewhere, water levels should remain below minor flood
benchmarks.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...