251
FXUS61 KOKX 210735
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building
high pressure for the remainder of the week. Low pressure will
be near or over the area Monday into Tuesday with a weak cold
front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper level low across Upstate NY gradually lifts northeast into
the Saint Lawrence River Valley tonight. Despite this, predominantly
dry weather continues today and tonight on a NW flow regime. Mainly
just some lower level fair weather clouds at around 5 to 7 kft with
broken and scattered cloud cover can be expected from time to time
with synoptic scale sinking motion increasing overall as high
pressure starts to gradually build from the west. A few showers and
sprinkles cannot be ruled out across northern most areas this
afternoon as showers from Central NY and Western New England may try
to pivot through. Dew point readings will remain in the comfortable
lower and middle 50s providing seasonably cool weather for this time
of year. Day time temperatures will be close to 10 degrees below
average today with mainly lower and middle 70s for day time maxes,
and temperatures tonight running below average with night time mins
in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the interior and mostly upper
50s closer to the coast. Followed the NBM closely with day time
temps, otherwise stuck with a MAV / MET blend for night time temps
to reflect more cooling in the more rural locations.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The W to NW flow regime continues with dry conditions. Scattered
clouds are expected towards late morning and into the afternoon with
a cold pool remaining in place on Thursday as the upper level low
gradually gets further northeast. Towards Thursday night heights
begin to rise some. Temperatures will remain below average, but
closer to normal for this time of year with middle and upper 70s.
Night time lows will remain below average. Used MAV / MET blend once
again to better account for radiational cooling at night, otherwise
used mainly NBM for day time temperatures.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
previous forecast/NBM.

Ridging builds over the area on Friday from the west and remains
over the region through the weekend.

Warm air advection is expected to gradually occur Friday into
Saturday with winds turning from northwest to south and west
on Friday and remaining that way on Saturday. This will lead to
high temperatures returning to the 80s, closer to climatological
averages. Dewpoints will also increase Friday into Saturday
with the influence of the onshore flow. Overall, it should
remain dry and mostly sunny Friday and Saturday due to general
subsidence over the region from high pressure.

After Saturday, global models diverge a bit on their solutions of
a low pressure system that drops southward out of Quebec
on Sunday into Monday. The GFS showing a low pressure system with a
deepening trough aloft in New England, bringing a weak
cold front Monday afternoon/evening. This would result in a
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening. The GFS keeps this upper low near the
region on Tuesday, while the ECMWF starts to move this model away
from the region. Will keep just a slight chance POP on Tuesday,
mainly north and west in case the slower, GFS solution is
correct.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure slowly builds in.

NW winds 10 kt or less increase to around 10 kt shortly after
daybreak, then to 10-15 kt with some gusts either side of 20 kt
in the afternoon. Some gusts up to 25 kt late in the afternoon
possible at the NYC metros. BKN cigs expected in the afternoon.
Winds diminish in late in the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional at times.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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No marine headlines throughout with high pressure gradually
building and eventually settling over the waters. Sub small
craft conditions will persist through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrological impacts are expected through the entire forecast
period.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There will be a moderate risk of rip currents today at the
ocean beaches, with a low risk on Thursday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JE
HYDROLOGY...BC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...