641
FXUS61 KOKX 211942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Broad high pressure gradually builds in to end the week. The
high will build offshore Saturday into Sunday. An area of low
pressure will then settle over or near the area to start next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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An upper low is currently spinning over the northeast US and can be
seen centered somewhere over southern New England in the latest
water vapor satellite imagery. With about 500 J/kg of SBCAPE,
scattered to numerous diurnal showers have developed to our
north and west. These have been spilling into our area. Have
updated PoPs again to expand the slight chance and chance PoPs
farther east again. Dewpoint depressions are still around 20
across the area, so the lightest showers will likely not reach
the ground. Otherwise, expect light showers with locally brief
moderate showers mainly north and west of NYC. Given the dry
sub-cloud air, any of the stronger showers could produce gusty
winds up to 30 mph.

Conditions tonight will be similar to Tuesday night. Clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow for great radiational
cooling conditions. The usual cool spots should be able to get down
into the upper 40s again, with low to upper 50s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper low is slow to depart to the north through Thursday night,
with an upper level trough remaining over the northeast US as it
does so. The flow aloft flattens by Friday. At the surface, broad
high pressure slowly builds in. A surface trough may linger over the
area on Thursday as a broad surface low is slow to depart to the
north.

Dry conditions and a gradual warm up through Friday are expected. By
Friday high temperatures will be back to normal for late August.
Another cool night is expected Thursday night, just a few degrees
warmer than tonight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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At the onset, the upper low over the Canadian Maritime continues to
depart to the northeast, with weak shortwave ridging moving into the
area ahead of another deepening upper trough approaching eastern
Canada. The latter of which closes off into an upper low over the
Northeast early next week. There is a bit of uncertainty with the
upper low track. The 12Z GFS is on the western envelope of the
guidance taking it across eastern PA and NJ Monday night into
Tuesday. The ECMWF and Canadian are across New England at the same
time. This will impact our rain chances early next week, For the
time, stayed with the NBM with no real preference.

Expect dry conditions with seasonable temperatures for the weekend,
but generally at or just above normal value. Monday through
Wednesday are tad cooler. As for rain chances and cloud cover, kept
Monday through Wednesday limited in both and mainly diurnal with any
convection. This could become a wetter and cloudier forecast
depending on where the upper low tracks.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure slowly builds into the region.

NW winds 10-15 kt with some gusts either side of 20 kt in the
afternoon. Some gusts up to 25 kt late in the afternoon possible
at the NYC metros. SCT-BKN cigs this afternoon expected to
dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds diminish this
evening to around 10 kts with SCT clouds expected to develop
towards late morning and into the afternoon on Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected through the end of the week.
Sub- small craft conditions continue into this weekend with a
southerly flow, peaking at 10 to 15 kt on the western ocean
waters each afternoon.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the middle
of next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There will be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW