822
FXUS61 KOKX 212336
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Broad high pressure will gradually build in to end the week,
then pass offshore this weekend. An area of low pressure will
then settle over or near the area to start next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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An upper low is currently spinning over the northeast US and can
be seen centered over New England England in the latest water
vapor satellite imagery. Associated shower activity has died
down, with only a few isolated showers in Putnam and N Fairfield
just prior to 00Z.
Otherwise, conditions will be similar to those of Tue night.
Clear skies, light winds and a dry air mass will allow for great
radiational cooling conditions. The usual cool spots should be
able to get down into the upper 40s again, with 50s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper low will be slow to depart to the north through
Thursday night, with an upper level trough remaining over the
Northeast as it does so. The flow aloft flattens by Friday. At
the surface, broad high pressure slowly builds in. A surface
trough may linger over the area on Thursday as a broad surface
low is slow to depart to the north.
Dry conditions and a gradual warmup through Friday are
expected. By Friday high temperatures will be back to normal for
late August. Another cool night is expected Thursday night,
just a few degrees warmer than tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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At the onset, the upper low over the Canadian Maritime continues
to depart to the northeast, with weak shortwave ridging moving
into the area ahead of another deepening upper trough
approaching eastern Canada. The latter of which closes off into
an upper low over the Northeast early next week. There is a bit
of uncertainty with the upper low track. The 12Z GFS is on the
western envelope of the guidance taking it across eastern PA and
NJ Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF and Canadian are across
New England at the same time. This will impact our rain chances
early next week, For the time, stayed with the NBM with no real
preference.
Expect dry conditions with seasonable temperatures for the weekend,
but generally at or just above normal value. Monday through
Wednesday are tad cooler. As for rain chances and cloud cover, kept
Monday through Wednesday limited in both and mainly diurnal with any
convection. This could become a wetter and cloudier forecast
depending on where the upper low tracks.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure slowly builds into the region. Diminishing
W-NW winds tonight will increase again during the late morning
and afternoon to around or just over 10 kt, with some gusts
15-20 kt in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20/BG
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...