496
FXUS61 KOKX 221729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
129 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface troughing over the region today, slides east this
evening. Broad high pressure will gradually build in to end the
week, then pass offshore this weekend. A warm front will then stall
near the area to start next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast remains on track with this midday update. No
significant changes have been made.
Closed upper low rotates over northern New England today, with its
trough axis sliding through this afternoon. At the surface, weak
surface troughing slides over the region in the morning, gradually
moving east in the aft/eve.
Cyclonic flow and shortwave surface/aloft will aid in development of
scattered instability cu (locally bkn across interior). Deep mixing
of W/NW flow will likely limit seabreeze development to the
immediate shoreline, with W/NW gusts 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon.
High temps will run slightly below seasonable in downslope flow of
Canadian airmass, with comfortably dry Tds in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper low continues to slowly lift into SE Canada tonight into
Friday, with upper flow flattening Fri and region on southern edge
of broad northern stream troughing. Troughing amplifies into the
northeast Saturday into Sunday. At the surface, sprawling modifying
Canadian high pressure to the west of the area tonight, will
gradually build south of the region thru Saturday, and to the east
by Sunday. A warm front approaches from the west Sunday eve.
Backside upper shortwave slides thru aloft tonight, with surface
troughing sliding east this evening and high pressure building to
the west and southwest of the region. Diurnal instability cu will
dissipate this evening, giving way to good radiational cooling conds
tonight. Lows across far outlying areas falling into the upper 40s
to around 50 degrees, to around 60 for NYC/Nj metro.
Dry conditions and a gradual warmup Friday into Saturday with
developing return flow and waa aloft. Temps moderating to seasonable
level Friday, and slightly above on Saturday.
Potential for late day/eve showers for far NW portions of the region
with deepening troughing and approaching warm front. Otherwise, dry
conditions and temps continuing to warm several degrees above normal
for areas N&W of NYC, while closer to seasonable for the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period starts off with an upper low over Quebec moving
southward over the northeast. The low will remain near the region
through the first half of the week, with a series of shortwaves
pivoting around the low.
There remains a bit of uncertainty with the exact track of the upper
low. Most of the forecast guidance has some type of rain or showers
across our area during the first part of next week, however the the
main differences will be the timing of each shortwave. Will stick
with the NBM POPs for now, however these POPs may be too low and
have to be increase as we get closer to Monday-Tuesday time frame.
NBM cloud cover forecast seemed a bit too low, so manually adjusted
upwards a bit. The upper low starts to depart to the east during the
middle of next week.
Temperatures Monday through Wednesday are a few degrees cooler than
over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period as high pressure settles over the
region.
W-NW winds 8-12kt this afternoon with some gusts 15-20 kt. Winds
diminish to 5-10 kt after sunset, becoming light and variable
at the outlying terminals late. Winds then return out of the SW
at around 10 kt during the day on Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional than frequent.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday through Sunday...VFR.
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of Sub-VFR in any
showers or thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal levels will approach and possibly briefly touch minor
flood thresholds for a few spots along the south shore bays of
Queens and Nassau counties and coastal Westchester and
Fairfield counties.
There will be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches today
and Friday, mainly from a mix of 1 ft onshore swells. Rip current
activity could be locally moderate due to Spring tidal activity.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BR/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...