768
FXUS61 KOKX 221936
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak surface troughing over the region today, exits east
tonight. Broad high pressure will gradually build in to end the
week. High pressure will move offshore on saturday, remaining in
control through Sunday. Broad low pressure then slowly
approaches the area, with a frontal system potentially moving
through sometime mid to late week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An upper and surface low over New England will exit into the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. A surface trough extended over our area from the
low will exit to our east tonight with the low. The surface trough
and low have lead to increased cloud cover that will then diminish
tonight as we lose diurnal heating, leading to clear skies overnight
as high pressure builds in from the west.

Under a light northwest flow and clear skies, overnight lows will
likely be in the mid/upper-50s in our northern tier, whereas the
southern half of the CWA will only drop into the mid-60s. Dewpoints
will also be higher, in the mid-50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the east on Friday under rising zonal
heights aloft. Warm air advection starts aloft with wind directions
turning to onshore flow due to the location of high pressure to our
west. These factors will lead to a warming trend with more humid
conditions.

Afternoon highs return to the 80s for much of NE NJ, NYC
metro and LI, while interior areas warm to near 80 or the upper-70s.
This is more seasonable for this time of year. Overnight lows will
be in the mid-60s to upper-50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level troughing deepens over the northeast US over the weekend
as high pressure shifts offshore at the surface. The return flow
from the high will start to bring back in higher moisture air and
warmer temperatures. Temperatures north and west of NYC will be
several degrees above normal while locations along the coast will be
closer to normal. Otherwise, a dry weekend is expected, with mostly
sunny skies.

A shortwave embedded in the upper low to our north will dive down
towards the area sometime Sunday night through Monday night. This
looks like the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is
disagreement from the global models on timing, so stuck with NBM
PoPs. This gives highest chances 18z Monday through 06 Tuesday.

Thereafter we likely see a brief dry period with some ridging aloft,
but a frontal system looks to follow quickly sometime in the middle
or end of next week. Temperatures during the week should all be
right around or just above normal for late August.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR through the TAF period as high pressure settles over the region.

W-NW winds 8-12kt will continue into the evening with any lingering
gusts diminishing. Some variability in wind direction is possible at
KJFK through the remainder of the afternoon as the sea breeze that
developed earlier this afternoon remains just offshore. Otherwise,
winds will diminish to 5-10 kt after sunset, becoming light and
variable at the outlying terminals late. Winds then return out of
the SW at around 10 kt during the day on Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday through Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Chance of Sub-VFR in any showers or
thunderstorms.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through middle of next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal levels will approach and possibly briefly touch minor flood
thresholds for a few spots along coastal Westchester and Fairfield
counties Friday afternoon.

There will be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
Friday. Rip current activity could be locally moderate due to Spring
tidal activity. With the flow becoming onshore on Saturday and a
southerly swell period increasing to 8-9s, there is a moderate risk
of rip currents.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...