202
FXUS61 KOKX 222348
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak surface troughing over the region will exit east tonight.
Broad high pressure will then gradually build in on Friday and
move offshore on Saturday, remaining in control through Sunday.
Broad low pressure will then slowly approach, with a frontal
system potentially moving through some time mid to late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An upper and surface low over New England will exit into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight. A trailing surface trough extending
into our area from the low will exit to our east tonight. Cloud
cover is already diminishing, and skies should become clear as
high pressure builds in from the west.
Under a light northwest flow and clear skies, overnight lows
will likely be in the mid/upper 50s across our northern tier,
whereas the southern half of the CWA will only drop into the
mid 60s. Dewpoints will also be higher, in the mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the east on Friday under rising
zonal heights aloft. Warm air advection starts aloft with wind
directions turning to onshore flow due to the location of high
pressure to our west. These factors will lead to a warming trend
with more humid conditions.
Afternoon highs return to the 80s for much of NE NJ, NYC metro
and Long Island, while interior areas warm to near 80 or the
upper 70s. This is more seasonable for this time of year.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to upper 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Upper level troughing deepens over the northeast US over the
weekend as high pressure shifts offshore at the surface. The
return flow from the high will start to bring back in higher
moisture air and warmer temperatures. Temperatures north and
west of NYC will be several degrees above normal while locations
along the coast will be closer to normal. Otherwise, a dry
weekend is expected, with mostly sunny skies.
A shortwave embedded in the upper low to our north will dive
down toward the area some time Sunday night through Monday
night. This looks like the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms. There is disagreement from the global models on
timing, so stuck with NBM PoP. This gives highest chances 18Z
Monday through 06Z Tuesday.
Thereafter we likely see a brief dry period with some ridging
aloft, but a frontal system looks to follow quickly sometime
in the middle or end of next week. Temperatures during the week
should all be right around or just above normal for late August.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure settles over the region.
Diminishing NW flow tonight should become W or WSW 5-10 kt by
Sat afternoon. Coastal sea breezes develop in the afternoon at
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON and should make it to KLGA late.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday through Sunday...VFR.
Monday and Tuesday...Chance of MVFR or lower cond at times in
any showers or thunderstorms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal levels will approach and possibly briefly touch minor
flood thresholds for a few spots along coastal Westchester and
Fairfield counties Friday afternoon.
There will be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches
Friday. Rip current activity could be locally moderate due to
Spring tidal activity. With the flow becoming onshore on
Saturday and a southerly swell period increasing to 8-9s, there
is a moderate risk of rip currents.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT