859
FXUS61 KOKX 230800
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will gradually build to the south of the region
through Saturday, remaining in control through Sunday. Broad low
pressure will then slowly approach early next week, with
multiple areas of weak low pressure moving across the region
Monday night through Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upper low continues to lift into SE Canada today, with upper
flow flattening and region on southern edge of broad northern
stream troughing. At the surface, modifying Canadian high
pressure to the west of the area, will gradually build to the
south through tonight.
Dry and seasonable temps today as airmass begins a gradual
modification process. Light westerly flow this morning will give
way to return S/SW flow in the afternoon, and coastal
seabreezes. High temps near seasonable (upper 70s interior,
lower 80s coast)
Although not as cool as previous few nights, one more night of
good radiational cooling into the lower 50s likely for far
outlying areas. Better chance for radiation fog along river
valleys and pine barrens with moderation of Tds in return flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Upper troughing over Ontario/Quebec amplifies into the
northeast Saturday Night into Sunday Night, with associated
closed low likely sinking over the area Monday. At the surface,
high pressure builds to the south of the region on Saturday, and
to the east by Sunday. A weak trough/warm front approaches late
Sun/Sun Night and lingers over the area on Monday.
Dry conditions Saturday and Sunday with gradually moderating
temps and an increase in humidity in return S/SW flow. Temps
rising slightly above seasonable on Saturday (lower to mid 80s),
and continuing to warm several degrees above normal for areas
N&W of NYC on Sun (mid to upper 80s), while closer to seasonable
for the coast with southerly flow (lower 80s).
Potential for isolated late Sun/Sun eve showers for far NW
portions of the region with deepening troughing and approaching
warm front, with low chances spreading east across the area Sun
Night. Models in decent agreement with potential for scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday aft/eve as closed
low moves overhead and weak surface low/troughing in place.
Potential for locally heavy downpours in moistening airmass with
marginal instability, but too early to determine specifics in
terms of location, rainfall amounts and rates. A few strong
storms possible as well with steepening mid- level lapse rates
with cold pool aloft. Temps slightly above seasonable on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Two mid level troughs during the long term period. One lingers
across the region Monday night through Tuesday with its low center
near the Canadian Maritimes. Next one approaches mid to late in the
week with its low closing off in Ontario and eventually getting into
the New England area by next Thursday.
At the surface, one weak area of low pressure moves south of Long
Island Monday night. This low may potentially linger nearby Tuesday
before moving well out into the Atlantic later Tuesday night through
midweek.
Another surface low pressure area and its associated trough approach
the region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, eventually
moving in Wednesday night. The low then lingers nearby in coastal
New England for Thursday.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly for eastern sections of
the region Monday night. Otherwise, chances for rain showers and any
thunderstorms remains low thereafter in the Tuesday through Thursday
timeframe. Systems coming in from the north and west will have
limited moisture to work with, making for less rainfall in the
forecast. POPs after Monday night for any rain showers mostly slight
chance, or 15 to 24 percent.
High temperatures expected to be near to slightly below normal. Low
temperatures expected to be near normal on average.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in today and then offshore Saturday.
Outside of potentially some MVFR fog at KSWF going into
daybreak, mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.
Winds remain light and under 10 kts through the TAF period. NW
flow this morning, eventually becoming more SW to S for most
terminals this afternoon.
KSWF stays with more westerly flow this afternoon. Sea breezes
expected along the coast this afternoon but with some westerly
flow in the low levels of the atmosphere, the timing of the sea
breeze will vary with CT locations and KJFK likely getting the
sea breeze first.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible pertaining to the timing of the sea breeze. This
could vary 1 to 3 hours from timing indicated in TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Possible localized MVFR fog away in
outlying terminals away from NYC.
Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR.
Sunday night: Chance of showers with MVFR possible.
Monday: Increasing chances for showers. A chance of thunderstorms.
MVFR or lower possible.
Tuesday: Low chance of showers. Possible MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Tidal levels will approach and possibly briefly touch minor
flood thresholds for a few spots along coastal Westchester and
Fairfield counties this afternoon.
There will generally be a low risk of rip currents at the ocean
beaches today and Saturday with a mixture mainly 1 ft S/SE swells.
Rip current activity could be locally moderate due to Spring tidal
activity.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...