814
FXUS61 KOKX 240245
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1045 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend
with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each
afternoon. Weak low pressure skirts by to the north Monday,
followed by weak high pressure for Tuesday and the first half
of Wednesday. Another weak low moves nearby late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No changes with this update as the forecast remains on track.

High pressure remains in control with temperatures creeping up
to more normal values for late August. This is in response to
the upper trough pulling away across the Canadian Maritime with
higher heights and warmer temperature profiles. Although not as
cool as previous nights, lows will still be a few degrees below
normal. Mainly clear skies and light winds overnight will allow
for decent radiational cooling. There is a chance for radiation
fog along river valleys, but confidence is low at this time.
Much of the guidance is still showing a decent amount of low-
level dry air in place. So it would seem unlikely away from
sources of waters.

Stayed close to the MOS guidance versus the NBM, which is a bit
cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak shortwave ridging will work across the area on Saturday
ahead of an amplifying northern stream trough that digs south
and east across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Saturday
night into Sunday. Expect mainly dry conditions with a chance of
late day showers Sunday well north and west of NYC. Otherwise,
temperatures will creep to just above normal levels heading into
Sunday along with gradually increasing humidity. Highs will
mainly be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to
upper 60s. Warmest readings will be across metro NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak upper level trough swings by just north of the area to begin
the period Sunday night into Monday. In terms of sensible weather,
there will be slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for NW
zones for a portion of Sunday night. For late Monday and Monday
evening there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms with a cold
pool aloft contributing to diurnally driven activity.

The upper level trough lifts northeast with weak high pressure likely
to take control Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. By late
Wednesday and Wednesday evening much of the global guidance is
suggesting another round of mid level height falls as a shortwave
traverses the area. Have chance to slight chance PoPs with this
feature.

Some disagreement ensues towards Thursday, with the NWP consensus
suggestive of mid and upper level ridging. Have kept Thursday
through the day Friday dry with high pressure likely to build across
from the north. Towards Friday night of next week the high begins to
slide offshore with an increase in clouds more likely to begin next
weekend.

Temperatures overall are expected to average near normal through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the area before moving offshore late
Saturday.

Southerly flow is gradually diminishing and will become light
and variable overnight. Winds will remain from the W-SW
tomorrow, except along the coast where afternoon seabreezes are
expected.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of the seabreeze Saturday afternoon may be off by an hour
or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night - Sunday: VFR.

Sunday night: Chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Monday: Increasing chances for showers. A chance of thunderstorms.
MVFR or lower possible.

Tuesday: Low chance of showers. Possible MVFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low rip current risk Saturday, with more of a
moderate risk level Sunday with a S to SSW wind Sunday afternoon.
Surf height is not expected to be above 2 ft throughout the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...