667
FXUS61 KOKX 242341
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will gradually work east through the
remainder of the weekend. An area of low pressure will then move
across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Weak high pressure
takes control Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak low with its warm
front moves through Wednesday and drags a cold front through
Wednesday night. High pressure returns Thursday and Friday. A
frontal boundary approaches next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A bit warmer night is on tap as high pressure works offshore
producing a weak southerly flow. Winds may become more or less
light and variable the second half of the night, but the area
will be under weak warm advection as an upper trough digs south
and east from eastern Canada and into the Northeast. Patchy
river valley fog is possible as well.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Airmass warms up a bit more on Sunday as 85h temps get to
around 15C. The upper trough axis orients itself across eastern
New England with an upper low east of James Bay dropping to the
southeast. The latter of which will send a strong shortwave
trough across the area Monday afternoon. High pressure will
continue to work slowly east. Airmass will gradually destabilize
with a mid level cap and dry air in place. Still maintaining a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening across
northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. Forcing
may not be sufficient to get much going as is reflected by
spotty coverage in the CAMs. However. steepening lapse rates
approaching 7C (85h-70h) and greater lift with the mid level
shortwave should be sufficient enough for scattered coverage
Monday afternoon/evening. Much of the area is under a marginal
risk for severe weather Monday with a strengthening mid level
flow. Main threat would be for isolated damaging wind gusts. The
biggest limiting factor will be the amount of dry air in place.
Highs Sunday will be a bit warmer, especially from NYC and
points north and west, mainly in the low to mid 80s. This is
a few degrees above normal for some locations. Lows Sunday night
will be near normal in the 60s. For Monday, stayed closer to
MOS due to expected cloud cover with the upper trough overhead,
This is just touch cooler than Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level and surface trough pivots across and to the east at
the start of the period for Monday evening. Slight chance PoPs are
in for the first half of Monday night for eastern most sections.
Skies will attempt to clear, at least in the mid and upper levels
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The question is how moist
will the low levels be, and this will be related to if any showers
occur late Monday / Monday evening. A wet ground and a light wind
later Monday night into Tuesday AM could result in patches of fog.
In any event, mid and upper level ridging then takes shape into
Tuesday with a good deal of sunshine and just a stratocu layer
below 5kft. High pressure just south of the area should remain
in control through early Wednesday.
Towards Wednesday afternoon a warm front approaches, but global NWP
has some disagreement as to how far east the boundary gets. Have
chance to slight chance PoPs for much of the area with the
relatively higher PoPs across N and NW sections. Dew points
gradually climb through Wednesday with heat headlines possible for
western portions of the area as heat indices may get into the 95 to
100 range. Wednesday looks to be the most humid and hottest day of
the week with a prevailing SW flow ahead of a cold front off to the
west. The UFVS-trained model is suggestive of a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall for Wednesday. However the flow appears that it
would be progressive enough to preclude significant or meaningful
hydro impacts.
The frontal boundary is expected to get offshore towards early
Thursday with high pressure likely to be in control for the late
week period. Towards the middle of next weekend another frontal
boundary will approach and likely give the region its next chance of
rain / showers.
With the exception of Wednesday being the warmest day, temperatures
overall are expected to average near normal throughout the long
term.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR through the TAF period under high pressure.
Light S-SW to variable flow tonight veering to light W by
Sunday AM. Light W/SW winds then become S with afternoon sea
breezes once again before becoming light and variable Sunday
night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the seabreeze on Sunday may be off by an hour or so.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. Slight chance of evening shra/tsra for KSWF.
Monday: Chance for aft/eve shra/tsra. MVFR or lower possible.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower in aft/eve
shra/tsra.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient over the area, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through the middle of next week. Sea are not likely
to get above 3 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the
period. However, minor hydrologic impacts more related to
nuisance or minor urban related flooding cannot be ruled out
Wednesday. At this time it appears the system should be
progressive enough to keep hydro related impacts minimal.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There will be a low rip current risk Sunday, with a moderate rip
current risk on Monday for the ocean beaches.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...