802
FXUS61 KOKX 270601
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weakening low pressure moves farther south away from the region
through tonight. Weak high pressure builds in through tonight. The
next frontal system approaches Wednesday. The associated cold front
moves across Wednesday night. High pressure returns Thursday
into Friday. A warm front approaches to begin the weekend, with
a cold front likely to follow later in the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The local region is on the backside of a departing upper level
trough. Convection diminished late in the evening with dry
conditions expected for the rest of the night.
Expecting fog to develop overnight with light winds,
temperatures cooling to near the dewpoint and moisture laden
grounds. Much of the fog is expected to be patchy but with some
larger areas of fog particularly for those locations that
received more rain earlier in the day. Have forecast areas of
fog for parts of Orange County NY, interior NE NJ, Western
Suffolk County NY as well as New London County CT. Some of the
fog could become dense, reducing visibilities to less than 1
mile going into daybreak.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fog is expected to dissipate with diurnal heating by around
8 to 9am or shortly thereafter.
Otherwise for today, expecting height rises in the mid levels.
Negative vorticity advection in the mid levels. Ridging and
suppression will keep clouds minimal allowing for mostly sunny
sky and continued dry conditions. Weakening low pressure moves
farther south and east from the region into the open Atlantic.
Weak high pressure building in at the surface from the north and
west will allow for sea breeze circulations to develop.
Going with the NBM 75th percentile for highs today. The NBM
used the previous day ended up being 1-2 degrees less with its
high temperature forecast compared to observations. High
temperatures today are expected to reach well into the 80s with
upper 80s in and around the NYC Metro. Max heat indices in the
lower 90s for parts of NE NJ.
Very mild temperatures expected for tonight, with forecast lows
ranging from the 60s to lower 70s for the majority of the area.
Conditions are expected to remain dry but clouds will be
increasing into early Wednesday.
Temperatures remain mild overnight into Wednesday, in the 60s
and low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term, with the national
blend mostly followed for this update. A low pressure system
begins to impact the area on Wednesday with a warm frontal
passage expected to move through Wednesday morning. Depending on
how quickly skies can clear out during the day will determine
how warm temperatures are able to rise. As of now, highs are
forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s. Some spots in NE
NJ and the western half of the CWA may have heat index values
rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as ample heating and moisture
will allow for the development of instability. The cold front
associated with the low pressure is poised to move through the
area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
Behind the frontal passage, high pressure builds in from the north,
allowing for a much cooler and drier airmass to move in under a
primarily NE flow. WHile some scattered showers can`t be entirely
ruled out during the end of the week with the low pressure to the
south and an approaching frontal system to the west into the
weekend, much of the area should be dry as high pressure should be
able to remain in place over the area through Friday, however, a NE
flow will keep high temperatures cooler, generally only in the
middle to upper 70s for Thursday through Saturday.
Another frontal system may move in from the west going into the
weekend which may result in some additional showers and
thunderstorms. As of now, left chance PoPs for eventual refining of
timing and coverage of any precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak high pressure moves overhead Tuesday.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. MVFR or IFR stratus is
possible tonight, especially across SE CT. A brief period of
MVFR conditions is possible across coastal terminals such as
KJFK and KISP, mainly after 08Z through around 12Z Tuesday
morning.
Mainly S-SE winds this evening under 10 kt. Some inland
terminals likely remain light and variable or light W-NW into
the evening. Winds will weaken this evening and become light and
variable overnight. Light (less than 10 kt) S winds start up
again late morning into the early afternoon on Tuesday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of low stratus of patchy fog development 08-12Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR. Low stratus possible with MVFR or
lower conditions late.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms.
Thursday-Friday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of afternoon/evening
showers/thunderstorms north and west of the NYC terminals.
Saturday: Chance of showers, possible thunderstorms and MVFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a weak pressure gradient across the coastal waters, conditions
are expected to remain below SCA criteria through this weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic problems are expected through tonight.
Models are indicating a very warm and humid airmass developing
across the region, especially along the coastal sections for
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Layer precipitable waters
reaching near 1.75 to 2 inches for much of the region Wednesday
into Wednesday evening. A more substantial lowering of
precipitable waters is forecast for late Wednesday night through
Thursday to less than 1 inch by early Thursday and then to near
to less than a half inch by early Thursday evening.
Steering flow approximated from 700-500 mb flow of mostly around 30-
35 kt should preclude most flooding issues, as this flow will allow
for faster translational movement of showers and thunderstorms.
However, minor flooding will still be possible with any multiple
rounds of larger areas of showers and thunderstorms that move
across as heavy downpours could easily occur. This would be more
probable for those locations that are low lying and poor
drainage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip current development along Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday, increasing to moderate on Wednesday
wit slightly stronger southerly flow.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR/MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...