097
FXUS61 KOKX 282225
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sags south of the area tonight. High pressure gradually
builds from the north and northeast through Friday. A frontal system
will affect the area this weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in
thereafter and will remain in control through at least the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this evening the flow quickly goes northerly, and then more
northeast after midnight. The heat advisory expires by 8 pm for
western and southwestern portions of the area. CAMS continue to
show widely scattered to isolated shower and t-storm activity
for this evening. Storms did fire up in north central and
northeastern PA. So far for the most part they have stayed below
severe criteria and will continue towards a less favorable
environment as they approach our area. The best chances of a
shower or thunderstorm are for far southwestern locations in
our area.
The change in air mass appears to be a little more delayed
compared to previous NWP cycles. Now the drier air takes a few
hours longer to drain into the region. Dew point readings drop
gradually through the 60s. The more noticeable drop in humidity
and improved comfortability takes place into Thursday morning.
Clouds will linger behind the cold front, and thus temperatures
remain a bit more elevated despite a northerly flow. Slight
chance PoPs were kept for SW sections into the pre-dawn hours.
Low temperatures will be in the 60s region wide.
With the southern edge of high pressure attempting to nose in from
the north conditions should remain primarily dry on Thursday. Some
shower and convective activity takes place off to the west later in
the day over Central PA, and could get into Eastern PA late. Have
maintained slight chance PoPs for later in the day for the western
half of the area with 15 to 20 percent PoPs. Otherwise expect
variably cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and much more comfortable
conditions with temperatures likely getting to about 5 degrees below
average for the day Thursday. Daytime highs will be in the middle
70s for the most part due to more cloud cover and a prevailing
easterly flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The forecast gets a little more complicated for Thursday night. The
evening should remain dry for the most part, with perhaps a few
showers getting into the western half of the region. Convective
chances will be limited with the boundary layer quite stable with an
onshore flow. An elevated warm front looks to slowly get slightly
further east through late Thursday night. Have slight chance to
minimal PoPs further east, with chance PoPs further west. Some
elevated convection cannot be completely ruled out for the western
periphery of the CWA later Thursday night into Friday morning, but
appears unlikely. An onshore flow will be locked in out of the east.
Temperatures will be a touch cooler with upper 50s to middle 60s
across the area.
High pressure builds along the New England coast and into the Gulf
of Maine on Friday. This should hold off precip throughout the day,
with more clouds further south and west, with less in cloud cover to
the northeast in closer proximity to the high. Skies will likely
average out partly cloudy for the most part with temperatures
running a few degrees below normal with the onshore flow
continuing.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period starts off dry Friday night with shortwave
ridging aloft and also a surface ridge lingering over the area from
offshore high pressure. Off to our west, a cold front approaches the
area. By late Saturday morning the surface ridge will weaken and as
the flow becomes southerly a plume of moisture will spread over the
area. Some showers are possible with this warm front in the morning
hours, but the bulk of any showers/thunderstorms will likely move
through Saturday evening/Saturday night ahead and along the actual
cold front. The latest GFS run shows pwats around 2 inches right
ahead of the cold front, which could allow for some heavy downpours,
but at this time the system looks progressive enough for hydro
impacts to be minimal. Also, the late timing of the front is
favorable for our area, with the loss of daytime heating leading to
lower instability.
A secondary push of cold air is expected later on Sunday, but the
airmass will likely be too dry for any showers/thunderstorms.
Canadian high pressure then builds in, bringing a dry and cool
airmass to the region. Dewpoints look to drop to the mid and upper
40s Monday night and then could stay around there through at least
mid week. Highs will be around 10 degrees below normal for early
September on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will move south of the area late this evening. High
pressure then builds in from eastern Canada through Thursday.
Mainly a VFR forecast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop near the front this evening, primarily around the NYC
terminals with the highest likelihood in the 23-02Z time frame.
Winds will mainly be from the W to NW 10-15kt with gusts to 20 kt
through this evening with the exception of KISP where a sea breeze
is currently stationary over the field. For KISP, winds may vary
between SW and NW through about 21-23Z as the front begins to
progress southward. Uncertainty in wind direction is highest at
KISP. After the frontal passage winds will shift to N then NE
overnight and diminish to 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a low probability of a shower/thunderstorm this afternoon
and evening.
In addition, the timing of the cold frontal passage could vary by 1-
2 hours, mainly on the later side .
Winds may vary between W and NW until the front begins to push
southward around 21-23Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: Mainly VFR, chance of showers western terminals.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of showers, possible thunderstorms and MVFR or
lower.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower/thunderstorm, mainly in the
afternoon and evening.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions are expected to prevail tonight through
Friday. A period of marginal small craft gusts and potentially seas
is anticipated for the central and eastern ocean from the early
morning through the early evening on Thursday. But by and large seas
are not expected to remain above 4 ft.
Winds and waves will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria this weekend into early next week. There is a chance that
gusts may occasionally reach 25 knots ahead of and behind a cold
front. The best chances would be on Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents Thursday and Friday. With a
15-17 kt easterly flow on Thursday and 4-5 ft waves at 6s, there is
potential for an upgrade to a high rip current risk. Regardless, rip
current activity will be enhanced along jetties and groins both
Thursday and Friday with a strong E to W sweep.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-
176>178.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MD
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...