112
FXUS61 KOKX 290607
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
207 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front sags south of the area tonight. High pressure gradually
builds from the north and northeast through Friday. A frontal system
will affect the area this weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in
thereafter and will remain in control through at least the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the delay in temperatures cooling off overnight. Any showers
that were around earlier in the evening have since moved well
offshore.
The change in air mass appears to be a little more delayed
compared to previous NWP cycles. Now the drier air takes a few
hours longer to drain into the region. Dew point readings drop
gradually through the 60s. The more noticeable drop in humidity
and improved comfortability takes place into Thursday morning.
Clouds will linger behind the cold front, and thus temperatures
remain a bit more elevated despite a northerly flow. Slight
chance PoPs were kept for SW sections into the pre-dawn hours.
Low temperatures will be in the 60s region wide.
With the southern edge of high pressure attempting to nose in from
the north conditions should remain primarily dry on Thursday. Some
shower and convective activity takes place off to the west later in
the day over Central PA, and could get into Eastern PA late. Have
maintained slight chance PoPs for later in the day for the western
half of the area with 15 to 20 percent PoPs. Otherwise expect
variably cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and much more comfortable
conditions with temperatures likely getting to about 5 degrees below
average for the day Thursday. Daytime highs will be in the middle
70s for the most part due to more cloud cover and a prevailing
easterly flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The forecast gets a little more complicated for Thursday night. The
evening should remain dry for the most part, with perhaps a few
showers getting into the western half of the region. Convective
chances will be limited with the boundary layer quite stable with an
onshore flow. An elevated warm front looks to slowly get slightly
further east through late Thursday night. Have slight chance to
minimal PoPs further east, with chance PoPs further west. Some
elevated convection cannot be completely ruled out for the western
periphery of the CWA later Thursday night into Friday morning, but
appears unlikely. An onshore flow will be locked in out of the east.
Temperatures will be a touch cooler with upper 50s to middle 60s
across the area.
High pressure builds along the New England coast and into the Gulf
of Maine on Friday. This should hold off precip throughout the day,
with more clouds further south and west, with less in cloud cover to
the northeast in closer proximity to the high. Skies will likely
average out partly cloudy for the most part with temperatures
running a few degrees below normal with the onshore flow
continuing.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period starts off dry Friday night with shortwave
ridging aloft and also a surface ridge lingering over the area from
offshore high pressure. Off to our west, a cold front approaches the
area. By late Saturday morning the surface ridge will weaken and as
the flow becomes southerly a plume of moisture will spread over the
area. Some showers are possible with this warm front in the morning
hours, but the bulk of any showers/thunderstorms will likely move
through Saturday evening/Saturday night ahead and along the actual
cold front. The latest GFS run shows pwats around 2 inches right
ahead of the cold front, which could allow for some heavy downpours,
but at this time the system looks progressive enough for hydro
impacts to be minimal. Also, the late timing of the front is
favorable for our area, with the loss of daytime heating leading to
lower instability.
A secondary push of cold air is expected later on Sunday, but the
airmass will likely be too dry for any showers/thunderstorms.
Canadian high pressure then builds in, bringing a dry and cool
airmass to the region. Dewpoints look to drop to the mid and upper
40s Monday night and then could stay around there through at least
mid week. Highs will be around 10 degrees below normal for early
September on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure across eastern Canada builds southeast today and
along the New England coast.
Mainly a VFR forecast. Brief MVFR conditions are possible early
this morning and again Thursday night. There is a chance of
showers Thursday night, mainly after midnight, and across the
NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals. Confidence is low and for
the time have left the mention out of the TAFs.
N-NE winds 7-12kt to start will gradually veer to the E this
morning, then E/SE this afternoon. Strongest winds will be right
along the coast. As high pressure builds south into the area
today, winds will gradually diminish this afternoon into this
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of winds shift may vary by 1-2 hours. Winds could become
more SE this afternoon than currently forecast.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Thursday night: Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers for
NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals.
Friday: VFR. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday: VFR, a chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms with MVFR
or lower. Showers and thunderstorms likely at night with MVFR or
lower.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions are expected to prevail tonight through
Friday. A period of marginal small craft gusts and potentially seas
is anticipated for the central and eastern ocean from the early
morning through the early evening on Thursday. But by and large seas
are not expected to remain above 4 ft.
Winds and waves will generally remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria this weekend into early next week. There is a chance that
gusts may occasionally reach 25 knots ahead of and behind a cold
front. The best chances would be on Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents Thursday and Friday. With a
15-17 kt easterly flow on Thursday and 4-5 ft waves at 6s, there is
potential for an upgrade to a high rip current risk. Regardless, rip
current activity will be enhanced along jetties and groins both
Thursday and Friday with a strong E to W sweep.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
AVIATION...DW