okx-afd on 2024-08-29

719
FXUS61 KOKX 290803
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
403 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure gradually builds from the north and northeast
through Friday. A series of frontal systems will work through
the area this weekend. Canadian high pressure builds in
thereafter and will remain in control through at least the
middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will gradually build into the region through
today. Some residual showers may work through the area early
this morning from the west, but should remain widely scattered.

Temperatures have been slow to cool off as the front slowly
shifts south. Dew points as well have remained higher than
expected but a noticeable trend downward is taking place as the
surface wind shifts E/NE as seen by a subtle boundary on radar
this morning.

Otherwise, much of the area should remain dry with variable
cloud cover expected today. A NE to E flow should keep
temperatures much cooler than yesterday with high temperatures
in the middle to upper 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Some mid-level energy moves through the Ohio Valley today which
may spark some convection and showers well to the west of the
area. As high pressure more firmly takes hold from the
northeast, a surface ridge developing over the area should keep
much of this from reaching the CWA. There remains a chance that
some of this convective activity approaches the western portions
of the area this evening and overnight. CAMs disagree as to the
potential extent of this occurring so kept slight chance to low
chance PoPs to indicate this potential.

Any scattered shower activity that is over the CWA tonight
should dissipate by Friday morning. High pressure continues to
take hold of the area through Friday with much of the day
expected to be dry, however cloud cover is expected to be
variable with NE portions of the area possibly remaining more
cloud free than SW portions that may be closer to convective
activity occurring well to the west. Winds should remain
primarily out of the E so temperatures will once again be
cooler than recent, generally only in the middle 70s. WInds
should begin to shift more SE Friday night as the area will
begin to be influenced by an approaching frontal system from the
west.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Only minor adjustments made to this part of the forecast period.
Overall, global models continue to pick up speed with the stronger
cold front that moves through the area Sunday night.

The surface ridge continues move out into the western Atlantic on
Saturday,giving way to an approaching frontal system. Some showers
are possible ahead of the warm front, but mainly north and west of
NYC. The bulk of the showers/thunderstorms will likely move through
Saturday evening/Saturday night along and ahead of a weakening cold
front. 00Z GFS continues to show pwats around 2 inches right ahead
of the cold front, which could allow for some heavy downpours, but
the better forcing shifts north and west of the area through the
night. In addition, the late timing of the front will not optimize
daytime instability.
Rainfall amounts at this time remain under an inch, highest north
and west of NYC.

A secondary push of cold air is expected later on Sunday, but the
airmass will likely be too dry for any showers/thunderstorms.
Canadian high pressure then builds in, bringing a dry and cool
airmass to the region. Dewpoints look to drop to the mid and upper
40s Monday night and then could stay around there through at least
mid week. Highs will be around 10 degrees below normal for early
September on Tuesday and Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure across eastern Canada builds southeast today and into
the area.

Mainly a VFR forecast. Brief MVFR conditions are possible early this
morning and again late tonight. There is a chance of showers
tonight, mainly after midnight and across the NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals. Confidence is too low at this time to mention in
TAFs.

N-NE winds 7-12kt to start will gradually veer to the E this
morning, then E/SE this afternoon. Strongest winds will be right
along the coast. As high pressure builds south into the area today,
winds will gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of winds shift may vary by 1-2 hours. Winds could become more
SE this afternoon than currently forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday night: Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers for NYC and
Lower Hudson Valley terminals.

Friday: VFR. A slight chance of showers.

Saturday: VFR, a chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms with MVFR
or lower. Showers and thunderstorms likely at night with MVFR or
lower.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a showers, mainly in the morning.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Conditions on all waters are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through the forecast period. However, there may be a
few occasional gusts on the ocean today and into early evening near
25 kt with waves around 4 feet.

There is also a chance that gusts may occasionally reach 25
knots ahead of and behind a cold front. The best chances would
be on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Friday. A
brisk easterly flow today at around 15kt may allow for some
localized instances of higher rip current risk but opted to
keep the forecast at moderate as much of the swell should be
parallel to the shoreline. Regardless, rip current activity will
be enhanced along jetties and groins both today and Friday with
a strong E to W sweep.-- End Changed Discussion --

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...