095
FXUS61 KOKX 300608
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
208 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure across New England will be slow to weaken and
retreat out in the Atlantic into Saturday. A warm front moves
through late Saturday and then is quickly followed by a cold
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday morning. A secondary
cold front moves through late Sunday into Sunday night. Thereafter,
Canadian high pressure builds in and will remain in control
through at least the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers continue to work in across the Lower Hudson Valley and
northern NJ, but weakening as they work east up against high
pressure along the New England coast. Expect this to continue
into the morning.
Lift in being provided by a shortwave trough dropping SE across
Northeast.
There is some disagreement among the CAMs on the extent of
shower coverage and timing tomorrow during the day. Have gone
with slight chance to chance for much of the area during the
morning hours, but dry things out east to west in the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the low/mid-60s with
dewpoints lower near 60. Tomorrow will see plenty of cloud cover
with mild highs in the low/mid-70s, a few degrees cooler than
observed on on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A small shortwave trough aloft exits east Friday night along with a
surface ridge. This will lead to tapering showers, which will lead
to dry conditions prior to sunrise and around daybreak on Saturday.
Saturday night will remain mostly cloudy-to-overcast with lows in
the low-to-upper-60s.+
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Bit of a tricky PoP forecast to start on Saturday. A lingering
surface ridge will be extended into the area from departing offshore
high pressure. Aloft, shortwave ridging will also be moving through.
The surface ridge from the offshore high looks to hold off the warm
front early Saturday, but if the ridge breaks down earlier, the warm
front may be able to advance faster. If this happens, rain showers
will be possible earlier than the current forecast shows for
Saturday morning.
Most of the action for the weekend looks to come Saturday evening
and overnight ahead of and along a cold front. This timing continues
to be favorable for us, as instability will be lower overnight due
to the loss of daytime heating. However, pwats in the latest NAM and
GFS are both still around 2 inches right ahead of the cold front.
So, any showers or thunderstorms that move through have the
potential for heavy downpours. The bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms will be done Sunday morning, but a secondary cold
front moves through, so PoPs linger into Sunday evening.
Thereafter, Canadian high pressure builds into the area and brings a
cool and dry airmass to the region, with sunny conditions. On
Monday, dewpoints drop into the 40s and will stay there through
midweek. Temperatures will be below normal for early September
during most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure across eastern Canada into coastal New England,
and the mid Atlantic will remain in place into Friday as a
surface trough remains to the west.
Low confidence forecast with low end VFR ceilings overnight,
which at times will be MVFR. Low confidence remains into Friday
with the ceiling forecast, and timing of any VFR conditions.
There is a chance that MVFR prevails most of the day. Scattered
showers are possible overnight across the western terminals.
Another round of showers possible Friday afternoon. An isolated
thunderstorm may move through, mainly across western terminals,
such as KTEB, KEWR, and KSWF, though confidence is low.
An easterly flow persists through the forecast period, generally
less around 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in the timing and duration of showers and MVFR
conditions overnight into Friday morning. Low confidence with
ceilings through the day Friday, with the possibility of MVFR
remaining much of the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: MVFR, with a chance of VFR early.
Saturday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible in showers and
thunderstorms during the evening and overnight.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria this week,
weekend, and through the middle of next week. There could be a
period of occasional 25 kt gusts this weekend and on Monday with
two cold frontal passages, but this remains a low probability
at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip currents continues on Friday, with the
easterly flow continuing, but closer to 12 to 14 knots. Given the
easterly flow, rip current activity will be enhanced along jetties
and groins.
On Saturday, the flow becomes southerly, just under 10 knots. 1 ft
long period southeasterly swell does build into the area, but
thinking low risk of rip currents for now with RCMOS showing
lowering probabilities into Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR/JT
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...