751
FXUS61 KOKX 301455
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will be slow to weaken and
retreat out into the Atlantic through tonight. A frontal system
approaches on Saturday, moving across the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. A secondary cold front moves through late
Sunday into Sunday night. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure
builds in and will remain in control through at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light shower activity along the western periphery of the CWA and
some western sections is struggling to get traction further
east with a high pressure ridge anchored just east of Maine and
down the New England coastal plain. Thus, the best forcing
struggles to shift further east into the afternoon with ridging
aloft moving in from the west. This would favor decreasing rain
chances and confining any showers to mainly far western
portions of the our area for a couple of more hours. Have
adjusted PoPs more to slight chance early on for mainly far
western portions. Therefore, sticking with the drier air winning
out to aid in sunshine across SE CT and eastern LI. Still a
good deal of clouds further west, but lift through any
meaningful depth of the column further west will be limited.
Highs this afternoon are unchanged and are forecast to top out
in the lower to middle 70s, which is about 7 to 10 degrees below
normal. This will be accompanied by an easterly flow as high
pressure retreats off the New England coast and a stalled
frontal boundary over the Mid Atlantic states and back into the
Central Appalachians.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect a mainly dry night with an upper level ridge moving
across the area. As winds gradually veer to the SE, there could
be some weak low-level warm advection producing drizzle and/or
sprinkles. For the time, have left the mention out of the
forecast. This would be mainly near the coast. Low tonight will
be in the 60s, but closer to normal with the cloud cover and
increasing low-level moisture.
On Saturday, the upper level ridge departs to the east while
low-level ridging gradually loses its grip of the area. A well
advertised amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes sends a series of frontal systems toward the
area, the first of which will move across the area late Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated cold front weakens as it
approaches and may even get hung up or wash out just east of the
area Sunday morning. The best forcing and instability with the
cold front will stay mainly north and west of the area. The
approaching warm front passes through Saturday evening with
little activity. That being said, still expect some moderate
showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will average from 0.25 to 0.50"
across the area, highest from NYC and points north and west.
Isolated higher amounts are possible with any stronger convection.
The day 2 outlook from SPC places western portions of the area,
including SW CT, western LI, and points west under a marginal
to slight risk of severe weather. The main threat being isolated
damaging winds. Mid level winds do strengthen Saturday night,
but instability is very marginal.
Showers linger into the morning hours Sunday, especially across
eastern LI and SE CT. The question then is how much can the
airmass recover ahead of a secondary cold front approaching the
area Sunday night. Right now, there looks to be too much dry
air, thus limiting the instability. Have kept an isolated threat
for a shower and/or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon with a pre-
frontal tough.
Temperatures warm up Saturday into Sunday. Highs on Sunday with
a SW flow and 85H temps around 15C will get into the lower and
middle 80s. A few locations around the NYC metro may get as high
as the upper 80s. It will also be more humid during this time
with dew points around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A secondary cold front moves through Sunday evening, so slight
chance PoPs linger into Sunday evening for eastern areas.
Thereafter, Canadian high pressure builds into the area and brings a
cool and dry airmass to the region, with sunny conditions. On
Monday, dewpoints drop into the 40s during the afternoon into
evening hours and will stay there through midweek. Temperatures
will be below normal for early September during most of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure extends into the area from the east today and
weakens tonight.
VFR during the daytime, but still a chance of MVFR at times
this morning for all but KISP/KBDR/KGON. MVFR probably returns
tonight.
An easterly wind continues today, then shifts to the SE tonight
with winds speeds generally around 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Tempo MVFR cigs possible this morning. Time for cigs returning
to MVFR tonight may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. MVFR or lower possible in showers and
thunderstorms during the evening and overnight.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the
middle of next week. There could be a period of occasional 25 kt
gusts later this weekend and on Monday with two cold frontal
passages, but this remains a low probability at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip currents continues today with a
continued easterly flow. While winds will be a bit weaker, the
E to W sweep will enhance rip current activity along jetties and
groins.
On Saturday, the flow becomes southerly, just under 10 knots. 1 ft
long period southeasterly swell does build into the area, but
thinking low risk of rip currents for now with RCMOS showing
lowering probabilities into Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JP
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...