041
FXUS61 KOKX 301747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across New England will be slow to weaken and
retreat out into the Atlantic through tonight. A frontal system
approaches on Saturday, moving across the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. A secondary cold front moves through late
Sunday into Sunday night. Thereafter, Canadian high pressure
builds in and will remain in control through at least the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light shower activity along the western periphery of the CWA and
some western sections is struggling to maintain itself and get
further east with a high pressure ridge anchored just east of
Maine and down the New England coastal plain. Thus, the best
forcing struggles to shift further east this afternoon and early
this evening with ridging aloft moving in from the west. This
favors mainly dry conditions, with perhaps an isolated shower or
two across far western portions of the area. Still a good deal
of clouds further west, but lift through any meaningful depth of
the column further west remains limited.
Temperatures for the remainder of the day remain largely
unchanged; only lowered a degree or so cooler on average across
the area. Forecast highs are to top out in the lower to middle
70s, which is about 7 to 10 degrees below normal. This will be
accompanied by an easterly flow as high pressure retreats off
the New England coast and a stalled frontal boundary over the
Mid Atlantic states and back into the Central Appalachians.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect a mainly dry night with an upper level ridge moving
across the area. As winds gradually veer to the SE, there could
be some weak low-level warm advection producing drizzle and/or
sprinkles. For the time, have left the mention out of the
forecast. This would be mainly near the coast. Low tonight will
be in the 60s, but closer to normal with the cloud cover and
increasing low-level moisture.
On Saturday, the upper level ridge departs to the east while
low-level ridging gradually loses its grip of the area. A well
advertised amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes sends a series of frontal systems toward the
area, the first of which will move across the area late Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated cold front weakens as it
approaches and may even get hung up or wash out just east of the
area Sunday morning. The best forcing and instability with the
cold front will stay mainly north and west of the area. The
approaching warm front passes through Saturday evening with
little activity. That being said, still expect some moderate
showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will average from 0.25 to 0.50"
across the area, highest from NYC and points north and west.
Isolated higher amounts are possible with any stronger convection.
The day 2 outlook from SPC places western portions of the area,
including SW CT, western LI, and points west under a marginal
to slight risk of severe weather. The main threat being isolated
damaging winds. Mid level winds do strengthen Saturday night,
but instability is very marginal.
Showers linger into the morning hours Sunday, especially across
eastern LI and SE CT. The question then is how much can the
airmass recover ahead of a secondary cold front approaching the
area Sunday night. Right now, there looks to be too much dry
air, thus limiting the instability. Have kept an isolated threat
for a shower and/or thunderstorm Sunday afternoon with a pre-
frontal tough.
Temperatures warm up Saturday into Sunday. Highs on Sunday with
a SW flow and 85H temps around 15C will get into the lower and
middle 80s. A few locations around the NYC metro may get as high
as the upper 80s. It will also be more humid during this time
with dew points around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A secondary cold front moves through Sunday evening, so slight
chance PoPs linger into Sunday evening for eastern areas.
Thereafter, Canadian high pressure builds into the area and brings a
cool and dry airmass to the region, with sunny conditions. On
Monday, dewpoints drop into the 40s during the afternoon into
evening hours and will stay there through midweek. Temperatures
will be below normal for early September during most of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure extends into the area from the east today and
weakens tonight.
VFR during the daytime, lowering to MVFR tonight. VFR returns
late Sat morning into early afternoon.
E winds around 10kt bcmg ESE-SE tonight under 10kt. Winds veer
further SE-SSE on Saturday, returning to around 10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Tempo MVFR cigs possible before 19z. Time for cigs returning to
MVFR tonight may be off by a few hours. Winds at KLGA may be NE
at times before approx 20z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday PM: VFR. Iso tstm with brief MVFR possible NW of the
city.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers in the morning. VFR in
the afternoon with iso shower/tstm possible.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the
middle of next week. There could be a period of occasional 25 kt
gusts later this weekend and on Monday with two cold frontal
passages, but this remains a low probability at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Any hydro impacts over the weekend appear minimal at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The moderate risk of rip currents continues today with a
continued easterly flow. While winds will be a bit weaker, the
E to W sweep will enhance rip current activity along jetties and
groins.
On Saturday, the flow becomes southerly, just under 10 knots. 1 ft
long period southeasterly swell does build into the area, but
thinking low risk of rip currents for now with RCMOS showing
lowering probabilities into Saturday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...