569
FXUS61 KOKX 011439
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1039 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A pre-frontal trough will move slowly across the area today and
then gets kicked eastward by a cold frontal passage tonight. High
pressure will then build east through the middle of the week,
gradually moving offshore mid to late next week. A frontal system
may approach the area Friday into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to forecast for today. Scattered shower
and isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat today in a moist
and weakly unstable airmass. Isolated heavy downpour
and strong thunderstorm threat exists this afternoon, with
favored axis likely east of the Hudson River. Weak pre-frontal
trough moving across the area will provide a focus for moisture
converge and convection, but limiting factors for more
widespread/organized activity is modest weak mid/upper-level
forcing with lack of a well defined trigger, weak shear profile,
and best llj/moisture axis sliding east this afternoon with
drying mid-levels from w to e during peak heating/instability.
Previous Discussion...
A deepening upper trough moving across the Great Lakes today
and into the Northeast tonight will send a pre-frontal trough
into the area today, followed by a strong cold frontal passage
tonight. Over the last few days, guidance and forecasts have
trended lower with rainfall amounts and potential impacts. This
is partly due to the timing of the trough (washed out cold
front) moving into the area this morning and the lack of
instability and large scale forcing. CAMs continue to show
little in the way of an organization.
Basin average rainfall across the area less than a quarter inch.
This does not mean there will not be higher amounts, but this
should be localized with any stronger convection. With the lack
of deep convection, the flood threat at this time mainly looks
to be of the minor nuisance variety.
For the afternoon hours, airmass destabilizes, especially north
and west where more more sun will be realized. However, the
better frontal forcing will reside west of the area and a
veering wind profile is likely to bring drier air into the
region. The latter of which is a limiting factor as it gets
mixed into the the low-levels. Thus, only looking for widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours.
SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
across the area, with localized damaging winds being the primary
threat.
Cold front will move through the area mainly dry the first half
of tonight. Northerly winds develop behind the front bringing
in drier, cooler air.
Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80 for LI and
CT, with the lower to mid 80s possible for areas to the west.
This is close to normal, but the high humidity will make it feel
less comfortable. Lows Monday morning will be cooler, but still
a few degrees above normal as the cold advection will still be
ongoing. Northerly winds Monday into Monday night could gust up
to 20 mph, but diminishing on Tuesday as the center of the high
approaches.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large dome of high pressure over the Great Lakes on Monday
will build east and into the area through midweek. By Tuesday,
temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal. It will
also be very comfortable with dew points dropping into the 40s,
possibly even the 30s on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
then gradually pushes offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies
are expected to be clear to mostly clear during this time frame. The
high remains offshore Friday leading to a return flow from the
south, which means increasing temperatures and dewpoints late next
week and an increase in cloud cover.
Conditions look to become unsettled next weekend as a frontal system
approaches from the west. At the same time, low pressure develops
along an old frontal boundary to the south, which also may approach
the area.
Highs during the long term will be in the 70s. Lows Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning will dip into the 40s in the interior and
into the 50s most everywhere else. Thereafter, overnight lows are
expected to warm to the 50s and 60s by the weekend due to increased
cloud cover, warm advection, and a more humid air mass in place.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A pre-frontal trough slowly moves through today. A cold front
follows tonight with high pressure building in thereafter.
MVFR improves to VFR early this afternoon for most terminals.
Showers with an iso TSTM still possible through this afternoon.
Confidence in TSTM too low to include in TAFs.
SW winds around 10 kt will shift to the W towards midnight,
then NW late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
IFR could prevail at KJFK through 16z. Improvement at all
terminals to VFR could be off by 1-2 hours. Iso TSTM still
possible through early evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday through Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the middle of
next week. Northerly winds gusts may reach 20 kts both Monday
morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Any showers/storms that develop on today may produce locally
heavy rainfall which could lead to minor urban/poor drainage
flooding. Any flash flood risk looks very low and localized. No
hydrologic impacts are expected thereafter.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip currents over performed on Saturday with most Long Island
beaches reporting moderate rip activity. Given guidance
continues to show moderate in spots and a similar set up
today, except stronger winds, will stay with moderate for all
beaches. Steady offshore winds and increasing surf height
should lead to another day of moderate rip activity on Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...