621
FXUS61 KOKX 011753
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A pre-frontal trough will move slowly across the area this
afternoon and then gets kicked eastward by a cold frontal
passage tonight. High pressure will then build east through the
middle of the week, gradually moving offshore mid to late next
week. A frontal system may approach the area Friday into next
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track for this afternoon with scattered shower and
isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat in a moist and weakly
unstable airmass ahead of a surface trough across LoHud and NE
NJ moving eastward.

Isolated heavy downpour and strong thunderstorm threat continues
this afternoon, with favored axis with convection moving from
LoHud into S CT through mid to late afternoon where sbcapes
running 1500 to 2000 j/KG and 25 kt effective deep layer shear.

Limiting factors for more widespread/organized activity is
modest weak mid/upper-level forcing, weak mid-level lapse rates,
and best llj/moisture axis sliding east this afternoon with
drying mid- levels from w to e during peak heating/instability.

Any lingering convection will weaken and slides east this
evening, followed by a cold front that will move through the
area mainly dry the first half of tonight. Northerly winds
develop behind the front bringing in drier, cooler air.

Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to around 80 for
LI and CT, with the lower to mid 80s possible for areas to the
west that see late day clearing. Lows Monday morning will be
cooler, but still a few degrees above normal as the cold
advection will still be ongoing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large dome of high pressure over the Great Lakes on Monday
will build east and into the area through midweek. By Tuesday,
temperatures will average 5 to 10 degrees below normal. It will
also be very comfortable with dew points dropping into the 40s,
possibly even the 30s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
then gradually pushes offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies
are expected to be clear to mostly clear during this time frame. The
high remains offshore Friday leading to a return flow from the
south, which means increasing temperatures and dewpoints late next
week and an increase in cloud cover.

Conditions look to become unsettled next weekend as a frontal system
approaches from the west. At the same time, low pressure develops
along an old frontal boundary to the south, which also may approach
the area.

Highs during the long term will be in the 70s. Lows Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning will dip into the 40s in the interior and
into the 50s most everywhere else. Thereafter, overnight lows are
expected to warm to the 50s and 60s by the weekend due to increased
cloud cover, warm advection, and a more humid air mass in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A pre-frontal trough exits east this afternoon, followed by a cold
front passage around midnight tonight. High pressure builds in
thereafter.

VFR, except a couple more hours of sub-VFR to start with at KISP and
KGON. Still a chance of showers over the next hour or two, but
mainly east of the city terminals. SW winds around 10 kt will shift
more westerly towards midnight, then shifting NW-NNW around midnight
behind the cold front. Gusts 16-20kt for Monday, mainly in the
afternoon.

    ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of PM MVFR and -shra.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the middle of
next week. Northerly winds gusts may reach 20 kts both Monday
morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any showers/storms that develop on today may produce locally
heavy rainfall which could lead to minor urban/poor drainage
flooding. Any flash flood risk looks very low and localized. No
hydrologic impacts are expected thereafter.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip currents over performed on Saturday with most Long Island
beaches reporting moderate rip activity. Given guidance
continues to show moderate in spots and a similar set up
today, except stronger winds, will stay with moderate for all
beaches. Steady offshore winds and increasing surf height
should lead to another day of moderate rip activity on Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...