954
FXUS61 KOKX 020114
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
914 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes across the area tonight. High pressure will
then build east through the middle of the week, gradually
moving offshore mid to late next week. A frontal system may
approach the area Friday into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this evening. A cold front just NW of
the area will swing through overnight. No additional showers are
expected as the atmosphere has dried out considerably. There is
some lingering low level moisture along the south fork of Long
Island and southeast Connecticut that has led to some low clouds
and/or patchy fog. Increasing flow with the frontal passage
should erode this moisture. Breezy N/NW winds behind the front
will bring in a much drier air mass to start the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northern stream trough will slowly slide over the region Monday into
Monday Night and gradually east on Tuesday. At the surface,
high pressure gradually build in from the west on Monday and
then overhead on Tuesday.
Dry and seasonably warm conditions on Monday with gusty N/NW winds
and sct aft/eve cu development ahead of approaching secondary cold
front. Secondary cold front crosses Mon eve with reinforcing
short of Canadian airmass. The mixed low-levels should keep
temps from radiatively bottoming out, but still lows in the 40s
across outlying areas and 50s NYC/NJ metro.
Sunny and slightly below seasonable temps on Tuesday as heart of
Canadian airmass settles over the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
then gradually pushes offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Skies
are expected to be clear to mostly clear during this time frame. The
high remains offshore Friday leading to a return flow from the
south, which means increasing temperatures and dewpoints late next
week and an increase in cloud cover.
Conditions look to become unsettled next weekend as a frontal system
approaches from the west. At the same time, low pressure develops
along an old frontal boundary to the south, which also may approach
the area. Guidance still varies in timing and placement of these
systems. The 12Z GFS and GDPS bring the coastal low over the area
while the 12Z ICON keeps it far out to sea. The 12Z ECMWF develops
two coastal lows, kicking one out to sea, then another up the east
coast. Ensembles also vary, with some bringing a coastal low up the
coast into our area while others keep it far out to sea. Until this
event comes more into focus, exact impacts will be hard to pinpoint.
Highs during the long term will be in the 70s. Lows Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning will dip into the upper-40s in the interior
and into the 50s almost everywhere else. Thereafter, overnight lows
are expected to warm to the 50s and 60s by the weekend due to
increased cloud cover, warm advection, and a more humid air mass in
place.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pass across the terminals tonight followed by
high pressure on Monday.
Mainly VFR with the only exception at KGON where there is
potential for IFR-LIFR this evening through around 04z.
A generally light SSW-SW flow this evening will veer to the NW
with the cold front passage overnight. Timing of the wind shift
looks to be around 3-4z NW of NYC to 5-7z across the NYC metro
and eastern terminals. Sustained winds likely increase to around
10 kt and then should increase further after day break, becoming
10-15 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the NW tonight may be off by 1-2 hours.
Frequent gusts could start an hour or two earlier than indicated
in TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: VFR. NW-N gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a shower PM..
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and waves likely remain below SCA criteria through Friday
night. Northerly winds gusts may reach 20 kts late tonight into
both Monday morning, with occasional gusts to 25 kt possible
Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Next chance of SCA conditions not until Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current activity is expected to be moderate for all Long Island
beaches on Labor Day, but may taper down to low late afternoon into
the evening. Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/NV
HYDROLOGY...BR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...