374
FXUS61 KOKX 020809
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds east through the middle of next week, gradually
moving offshore mid to late next week. A frontal system may approach
the area Friday into next weekend.High pressure gradually moves
offshore Thursday and Friday. A complex frontal system impacts
the region late Friday through Saturday. High pressure returns
late Sunday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Dry conditions expected for Monday with high pressure building in
from the west. Trough axis aloft will push east, but with subsidence
associated with the building high, no precipitation is expected with
this disturbance, especially with dew points dropping into the 50s
and even some upper 40s by day`s end on a gusty northwesterly flow.
Just some fair weather stratocu expected in the afternoon into the
early evening hours. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal with highs in the middle 70s across the Lower Hudson Valley,
and upper 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A surface trough moves through tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot
of cooler and drier air. Dew points continue to drop into the 40s.
Winds should diminish Monday night, especially inland, but not
enough for optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Lows
are expected to drop to the middle and upper 40s across the
Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. 50s are
expected elsewhere, even into NYC.

Tranquil conditions and below normal temperatures are expected
Tuesday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s for the entire
forecast area. Slightly warmer readings are expected Wednesday.
Tuesday night seems to be the better night for outlying areas to
radiate with winds expected to become light and variable as the
center of the high approaches. Lows in the outlying areas will dip
into the lower to middle 40s, while elsewhere will generally see
lows in the 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Offshore surface high pressure continues to move east Thursday into
Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper trough will be amplifying
into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region Thursday through
Friday as an area of weak low pressure along the Gulf coast states
slowly begins to interact with the northern stream trough. The
organizing souther low will interact with the northern cold front
Friday into Saturday night. There remain some differences with the
global guidance with the timing and placement of these systems.
Trends have been for impacts from these systems for the beginning of
the upcoming weekend. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is
possible as the low tracks near or over the region as precipitable
waters increases to near 2 inches, and a strong low level jet
develops. The low then departs to the northeast Saturday night into
Sunday, and have gone with a dry forecast by later Sunday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Thursday and
Friday and then trend lower for Saturday into the beginning of next
week. Sunday and Monday temperatures may be 5 to near 10 degrees
below seasonal normals.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front was east and south of Long Island at 07Z. High pressure
builds in slowly from the west through tonight.

VFR.

Winds NW to N with gusts developing early in the morning, 12Z to
14Z, increasing to around 20kt, and then end during the evening.
Timing of the onset and ending of the gusts may be off an hour or
two.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of beginning and ending of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Monday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR. A slight chance of a late day shower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Northerly wind gusts are expected to gust to 25 kt on the ocean
waters tonight into Tuesday morning on the heels of cold
advection with building Canadian high pressure from the
northwest. Winds diminish Tuesday. Thereafter, winds and waves
likely remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night.

An increasing and persistent easterly flow will allow ocean seas to
build to SCA levels during Friday. As a complex frontal system
impacts the area waters Friday night through Saturday night SCA
conditions will remain on the ocean waters. There is a chance of SCA
conditions on the eastern Long Island Sound by late Saturday and into
Saturday night as low pressure passes through the region. Conditions
slowly improve on the ocean waters Sunday as a northwest flow
develops behind departing low pressure.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current activity is expected to be moderate for all Long Island
beaches on Labor Day, but may taper down to low late afternoon into
the evening. Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...