405
FXUS61 KOKX 021443
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the region thru the middle of the
week, gradually moving offshore mid to late week. A complex
frontal system impacts the region late Friday through Saturday.
High pressure returns late Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Northern stream upper trough axis slides into the NE US today,
with a resultant weak surface trough developing across the
coastal plain. A reinforcing Canadian cold front approaches
this evening.
Scattered to locally broken cu development likely this afternoon
in response, with isolated sprinkles possible.
Otherwise a dry and seasonably warm day, with gusty N winds in
the morning advecting in a drier airmass that 24 hrs ago, with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with comfortable
Td`s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface trough moves through tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot
of cooler and drier air. Dew points continue to drop into the 40s.
Winds should diminish Monday night, especially inland, but not
enough for optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Lows
are expected to drop to the middle and upper 40s across the
Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. 50s are
expected elsewhere, even into NYC.
Tranquil conditions and below normal temperatures are expected
Tuesday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s for the entire
forecast area. Slightly warmer readings are expected Wednesday.
Tuesday night seems to be the better night for outlying areas to
radiate with winds expected to become light and variable as the
center of the high approaches. Lows in the outlying areas will dip
into the lower to middle 40s, while elsewhere will generally see
lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Offshore surface high pressure continues to move east Thursday
into Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper trough will be
amplifying into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region
Thursday through Friday as an area of weak low pressure along
the Gulf coast states slowly begins to interact with the
northern stream trough. The organizing souther low will interact
with the northern cold front Friday into Saturday night. There
remain some differences with the global guidance with the timing
and placement of these systems. Trends have been for impacts
from these systems for the beginning of the upcoming weekend. A
period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible as the low
tracks near or over the region as precipitable waters increases
to near 2 inches, and a strong low level jet develops. The low
then departs to the northeast Saturday night into Sunday, and
have gone with a dry forecast by later Sunday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Thursday and
Friday and then trend lower for Saturday into the beginning of next
week. Sunday and Monday temperatures may be 5 to near 10 degrees
below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in slowly from the west through tonight.
VFR.
Winds NW to N with gusts 18 to 23 kt. Gusts then near midnight
tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of ending of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. There could
be a period late this afternoon where gusts are only occasional
or don`t happen at all.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. A slight chance of a late day shower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Northerly wind gusts are expected to gust to 25 kt on the ocean
waters tonight into Tuesday morning on the heels of secondary
cold front with building Canadian high pressure from the
northwest. Winds diminish Tuesday. Thereafter, winds and waves
likely remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night.
An increasing and persistent easterly flow will allow ocean seas to
build to SCA levels during Friday. As a complex frontal system
impacts the area waters Friday night through Saturday night SCA
conditions will remain on the ocean waters. There is a chance of SCA
conditions on the eastern Long Island Sound by late Saturday and into
Saturday night as low pressure passes through the region. Conditions
slowly improve on the ocean waters Sunday as a northwest flow
develops behind departing low pressure.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Rip current activity is expected to be moderate for all Long Island
beaches today with a combo of 1 to 2 ft S/SE swells.
Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday with generally 1
ft SE and S swells.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/NV
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...