384
FXUS61 KOKX 022219
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
619 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region thru the middle of the
week, gradually moving offshore mid to late week. A complex
frontal system affects the region late Friday through Saturday.
High pressure returns late Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track. Only minor changes were made on
this early evening update.
Northern stream upper trough axis slides east tonight with a
reinforcing Canadian cold front crossing the region this evening.
Scattered diurnal CU + CU along/ahead of secondary cold front
this aft/early eve. Gusty NW winds tonight ushering in cooler
and drier Canadian airmass. The mixed low-levels should keep
temps from radiatively bottoming out, but still lows in the 40s
across outlying areas and 50s NYC/NJ metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northern stream upper trough axis slides east Tuesday, with rising
height Tuesday Night into Wednesday. A weak shortwave slides into
New England on Wednesday.
At the surface, high pressure builds overhead Tue into Tue Night,
and then slides east on Wed. Gusty N winds into Tue Am will advect
in a cooler/drier Canadian airmass, gradually weakening Tue
aft. Mostly sunny with temps several degrees below seasonable
temps on Tuesday, with highs in the lower 70s interior/ mid 70s
city/coast.
Good radiational cooling conds for far outlying areas Tue Night.
Lows around 40 degrees for far outlying areas, with upper 50s for
NYC/NJ metro.
Canadian airmass moderates a bit on Wed, as high pressure slides
offshore with return onshore flow. Temps still a few degrees below
seasonable with highs in the mid 70s interior/ upper 70s
city/coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Offshore surface high pressure continues to move east Thursday into
Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper trough will be amplifying
into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region Thursday through
Friday as an area of weak low pressure along the Gulf coast states
slowly begins to interact with the northern stream trough. The
organizing southern low will interact with the northern cold front
Friday into Saturday night. There still remain some differences with
the global guidance with the timing and placement of these systems.
Trends have gone a little later with this complex since yesterday.
However, main impacts still expected for this weekend. A period of
moderate to heavy rainfall is possible as the low tracks near or
over the region as precipitable waters increases to near 2 inches,
and a strong low level jet develops. The low then departs to the
northeast on Sunday, and have gone with a dry forecast by Monday
morning. This timing is still subject to change.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Thursday and
Friday and then trend lower for Saturday into the beginning of next
week. Sunday and Monday temperatures may be 5 to near 10 degrees
below seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in slowly from the west through tonight.
VFR.
North winds with gusts 15 to 20 kt. Sustained winds and gusts
increase by a few kt early this evening before diminishing after
around midnight tonight. Winds on Tuesday veer NE with sea breezes
probable in the afternoon/evening hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ending time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours. Gusts might be only
occasional for the rest of this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday PM- Friday morning: VFR.
Friday PM-SAT: Sub-VFR possible with showers or periods of rain
possible. E to SE gusts around 20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Northerly wind gusts around 25 kt rapidly develop this evening on
the ocean waters, and occasional gusts to 25 kt for remainder of
waters ocean waters, on the heels of secondary cold front passage.
Wind gusts will subside below SCA Tue AM. Offshore ocean seas likely
remain just below SCA at this time.
Winds diminish Tue aft into night. Thereafter, winds and waves
remain below SCA criteria through Thursday.
An increasing and persistent easterly flow will allow ocean seas to
build to SCA levels during Friday. As a complex frontal system
impacts the area waters Friday night through Saturday night SCA
conditions will remain on the ocean waters. There is a chance of SCA
conditions on the eastern Long Island Sound by late Saturday and
into Saturday night as low pressure passes through the region.
Conditions slowly improve on the ocean waters Sunday as a northwest
flow develops behind departing low pressure.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday into
Saturday night with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
However, should the coastal system approach along a different
trajectory, its possible we may see less rainfall than this.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday with generally 1
ft SE and S swells.
Rip currents may increase to moderate later in the day on
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/NV
NEAR TERM...BR/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BR/NV
HYDROLOGY...BR/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...