130
FXUS61 KOKX 031438
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region through the middle of the
week, gradually moving offshore mid to late week. The high
weakens across the area Friday as low pressure approaches. The
low passes to the north during Saturday sending a cold front
through the region Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure
returns for Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with just a few minor adjustments to reflect
current observations.
Otherwise, tranquil weather continues with high pressure
building in from the west as an upper level trough pushes off
the Northeast Coast. The center of the high should move overhead
late in the day into early tonight. Subsidence associated with
the high should provide for mostly sunny skies.
Cold air advection will mean temperatures will be around 5 to 10
degrees below normal today, with highs in the lower to middle
70s. It will also allow the dry conditions to continue as dew
points in the 40s are expected region-wide today. Some isolated
dew point readings could dip into the upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Good radiational cooling conds for far outlying areas tonight
with clear skies and light winds. Lows around 40 degrees for
far outlying areas (some isolate upper 30s possible, mainly in
the Pine Barrens of Long Island), with upper 50s for NYC/NJ
metro.
Canadian airmass moderates a bit on Wednesday, as high pressure
slides offshore with return onshore flow. Temps still a few
degrees below seasonable with highs in the mid 70s interior/
upper 70s city/coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Offshore high pressure early Friday will be weakening across the
region as offshore low pressure tracks northward and a cold front
and low approach from the west. Global guidance has become more
consistent with not phasing the southern stream low with a northern
stream trough that will be amplifying into the upper midwest at the
end of the week and into the weekend. The upper trough evolves into
a closed low Friday night into Saturday that then slowly moves
eastward, reaching eastern Canada and New England by Tuesday. There
is still the possibility of a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
Saturday into Saturday night with the approach and passage of a cold
front, and as precipitable water values increase to around 1.75
inches and a low level jet of 25 to 35 kt moves into the area.
There will be little CAPE and shear, with little surface based
instability Saturday into Saturday night so have included a mention
of thunder, however, storms may be more isolated.
High pressure returns Sunday into the beginning of next week.
With some uncertainties remaining with the timing and placement of
the southern low and the northern cold front have stayed close to
the NBM throughout the extended period.
Temperatures will be near normals levels Friday, and then 5 to
nearly 10 degrees below normals Saturday into the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR with high pressure approaching the terminals, moving
overhead this evening.
A light northerly flow continues this afternoon. During the mid
to late afternoon sea breezes are expected to develop. Winds
then become light SW to light and variable this evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze at KJFK may be an hour earlier than forecast. The sea
breeze likely moves into KEWR late 22Z to 23Z. The sea breeze may
also reach KLGA around 23Z, however, with low confidence did not
include in the forecast at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday-Friday: VFR.
Friday night-Saturday night: Sub-VFR possible with showers or
periods of rain possible. E to SE gusts around 20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds will continue to diminish today with center of high
pressure approaching from the west. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected through Thursday morning. Waves build to 5 ft on the
ocean Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as an easterly flow
develops.
With a persistent easterly flow continuing Friday into Saturday
night ocean seas are likely to be at SCA levels. With the passage of
a cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning winds will become
northerly and ocean seas will slowly subside Sunday into Sunday
night. The non ocean waters remain below advisory levels Friday
through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday with generally 1
ft SE and S swells.
Rip currents are expected to be low on Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD/MET
MARINE...BC/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...