674
FXUS61 KOKX 032146
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
546 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region slides offshore late Wednesday and
remains northeast of the area Friday. A cold front then
approaches from the west on Saturday and shifts through during
Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure then slowly
builds back into the region thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track. Only hourly temperatures and
dewpoints were adjusted slightly with this update.
High pressure will remain over the region tonight. With clear skies
and light winds, expect good radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s and lower 60s for the
NYC metro area, however further away from the city, lows will be in
the 40s. Can not rule out some isolate upper 30s possible, mainly in
the Pine Barrens of Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region through the short term
period with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. The high will
slowly build offshore late Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will
result in slightly warmer conditions both Wednesday and Thursday,
however temperatures will remain around or slightly below normal for
this time of year.
Highs both Wednesday and Thursday will be in the middle and upper
70s. Lows Wednesday night will range from the Upper 40s to middle
60s, with the warmest spots in and around the NYC metro area.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered nearby the Canadian Maritimes will continue
to extend into the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.
Although there may be some lower level moisture around with easterly
winds, it should be rain-free through this period. Upward lift will
be lacking - in part due to subsidence over us created by an
offshore low passing well to our east and an approaching system to
our west. High temperatures for Friday near normal in the upper
70s/around 80, but could be a little cooler than this if more lower
level cloud cover ends up occurring than currently shown by most
guidance.
A longwave trough digs into the Great Lakes Friday night with a
closed 500mb low forming this weekend, moving slowly NE through
southern Canada through Tuesday. An associated cold front will
approach from the west and pass through late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. This will be the period where rain chances will be
highest, but will keep PoPs capped at chance for the time being.
Rain chances otherwise begin Friday night and probably end for most
spots by Sunday afternoon. Still can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm near the cold front as it passes through with a little
instability in place.
High pressure will be slow to build back into the region Monday and
Tuesday as the flow aloft remains cyclonic, but the period should be
dry. High temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will be below
normal, but still in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period with high pressure dominating across
the region.
A light northerly flow continues into early evening with coastal sea
breezes. Sea breeze may reach KLGA and KEWR before weakening. Winds
then become light SW to light and variable later this evening and
overnight. Onshore flow and enhanced sea breezes redevelop again
Wednesday by mid to late morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
The sea breeze likely moves into KEWR late 22Z to 23Z. The sea
breeze may also reach KLGA around 23Z, however, with low confidence
did not include in the forecast at this time.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
18Z Wednesday-Friday: VFR.
Friday night-Saturday night: Sub-VFR possible with showers or
periods of rain possible. E to SE gusts around 20 kt possible.
Sunday...Changes of MVFR early...becoming VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will result in a weak pressure
gradient over the area waters. Expect sub-SCA conditions through
much of Thursday. Waves start to build during the day Thursday, with
some 5ft seas possible very late in the day Thursday.
5 to 6 ft seas are anticipated for the rest of the forecast period
on the ocean waters due easterly winds of 10-15 kt combined with a
building ESE swell. Sub-advisory conditions will otherwise prevail
elsewhere.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
The potential for convection, which would help maximize PWATs of
around 1.75 inches in the area, is low during the time a cold front
passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Flash
flooding is therefore not anticipated during this time, but there is
still a chance of minor/poor drainage flooding. No hydrologic
impacts are expected otherwise through the rest of the forecast
period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current threat for both Wednesday and Thursday is expected
to be moderate. An 8-9 second period ESE swell builds from around 3
feet to 4-5 feet during this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...