777
FXUS61 KOKX 041412
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1012 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region slides offshore this afternoon and
remains northeast of the area through Thursday. The high then
drifts east Friday. A cold front will move through the area
sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure then
slowly builds in thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures were running slightly warmer than forecasted, so
have bumped up temps today just a degree or two. The sea breeze
timing has also been pushed back an hour or two compared to the
original forecast. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
High pressure remains over the region today, and slides off the
northeast coast late this afternoon. With a deep dry
atmospheric column sky conditions are expected to be clear. High
temperatures will be slightly below seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The high will remain off the northeast coast through Thursday,
and then begin to drift eastward late Thursday night and Friday.
Temperatures tonight and Thursday will remain near 5 degrees
below seasonal normals.
Clouds will be increasing Thursday night as offshore low
pressure moves northward, reaching east of the Delmarva by
Friday morning. Also, low level temperature warm slightly. While
Thursday night`s lows, and Friday`s highs will be higher than
Wednesday`s and Thursday`s temperatures will still be slightly
below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A longwave trough digs into the Great Lakes Friday night, with a
closed 500mb low forming this weekend. The low will be slow to
depart, with general troughing over the northeast through early next
week. An associated surface low will form and deepen well to our
northwest, but will send a cold front through the area sometime
Saturday night into Sunday morning. At the same time, strong low
pressure will pass well offshore. High pressure slowly builds in
thereafter, with the potential for a few surface troughs to move
through the area early next week.
The only chances of rain in the long term period will be ahead of
and along the cold front Saturday into Sunday. Due to the timing of
the frontal passage, the best chances of any heavier showers and
thunder looks to be to our west, but can not be completely ruled
out. Have kept slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. At
this time, any hydrologic impacts are expected to be minor and
north and west of NYC. See Hydrology section below.
High pressure that builds in thereafter will bring another dry
airmass to the region. Dewpoints drop on Sunday and should stay in
the 40s to low 50s for a few days. High temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees below normal on Sunday and Monday and then right around
normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows look to be back in the upper
40s and 50s Sunday night and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
VFR.
Light and variable winds through early this morning or light out
of the NE/E. Onshore flow and enhanced sea breezes redevelop
again late this morning/early afternoon before winds become
light and variable again tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of sea breezes may be an hour or two off today.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Friday night through Saturday night: Sub-VFR possible with showers
or periods of rain possible. E to SE gusts around 20 kt possible.
Sunday: Chances of MVFR early, becoming VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will result in a weak pressure
gradient over the area waters, keeping winds and gusts below
advisory levels. However, with an increasing E/SE swell through
Thursday ocean seas are expected to build up to 5 feet by late
Thursday and remain elevated into Friday. A SCA has been posted
for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and will likely be
extended into Friday. Five to 6 ft seas are anticipated through
early Sunday on the ocean waters as easterly winds of 10-15 kt
combine with a building ESE swell from offshore low pressure.
Conditions thereafter lower below SCA criteria as high pressure
builds in.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for convection, which would help maximize PWATs of
around 1.50 to 1.75 inches in the area, is low during the time a
cold front passes through the area sometime Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Flash flooding is therefore not anticipated during
this time, but there is still a chance of minor/poor drainage
flooding mainly north and west of NYC. No hydrologic impacts are
expected otherwise through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current threat for today and Thursday is expected to be
moderate. A 7-9 second period ESE swell builds from 2-3 ft to
4-5 ft during this time. With the increasing swells Thursday,
the rip current risk may increase to high during the afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...