863
FXUS61 KOKX 041933
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
333 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the region slides offshore tonight and
remains northeast of the area through Thursday. The high then
drifts east Friday as a coastal low tracks northward to our east
over the Atlantic. High pressure continues to weaken across the
area Friday night with a frontal system moving through for the
first half of the upcoming weekend. The weekend then closes out
with high pressure, which will be staying in the area for the
early to middle part of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains in control, gradually pushing offshore tonight
into tomorrow. As the high pushes east, a southerly flow will become
more solidified, leading to a gradual increase in dewpoints and
overnight temperatures. Tonight, lows will be in the low-50s to low-
60s. Tomorrow, highs will be similar to what was observed today in
the mid/upper-70s under continued sunshine.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A low will develop along a stalled front over the Atlantic east of
the Carolinas on Thursday. This will push northward to our east
through Friday. High pressure will continue to nose in Thursday
night, but will lose its influence as the low pushes it out of the
area.
The coastal low will be offshore to our southeast and east on
Thursday night into Friday afternoon, but will will bring increasing
cloud cover Thursday night along with PWATs above 1 inch and
dewpoints back into the mid/upper-60s. The low will also lead to an
inverted surface trough over the area, which most CAMs currently
have some showers resolving along the trough. The best timing for
these showers will be early Friday morning into early Friday
afternoon. Coverage will likely be isolated, with the best chances
for rain closer to the periphery of the low such as the eastern end
of Long Island. Rain is expected to be light and sparse, with only
an isolated thunderstorm possible.
With increased southerly flow on Friday, highs will be in the mid-
70s to low-80s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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In the mid levels Friday night, cutoff low moves towards vicinity of
Nova Scotia. Meanwhile a much larger and deeper cutoff low in the
Great Lakes will move southeast. This larger cutoff low eventually
moves into SE Canada Saturday through Saturday night. There is
forecast the tightening height gradient with strengthening mid level
SW flow across the local area during this time period. This large
low will continue its eastward track through the remainder of the
weekend with the trough pattern remaining across the local region.
The local region stays in SW mid level flow. The trough axis moves
in Monday into Monday night. Thereafter, still overall thereafter
into the middle of next week, a quasi-zonal flow occurs across the
local region with large trough pattern remaining across SE Canada
into Northern New England.
At the surface, a low far offshore will continue to make northward
movement in the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Nova Scotia Friday
night. Meanwhile, across the local region, surface high pressure
will continue to be weakening during this time period. Mainly dry
conditions expected Friday night.
For the weekend, a frontal system approaches from the west for
Saturday. The associated warm front will be approaching from the
west during Saturday. Then for Saturday night, there is indication
of a low forming along this warm front and potentially occluding.
The low will make its way across the region Saturday night. The low
may still be nearby for early Sunday, but high pressure then makes
its return for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Shower chances
increase Saturday and continue Saturday night and then decrease late
Saturday night into early Sunday. There is a chance for
thunderstorms as well Saturday into Saturday night, with the
combination of some weak instability and the passage of vorticity
maxima ahead of the trough axis. Dry conditions return Sunday
through the rest of the weekend.
The high pressure will continue building in from the west for early
into the middle of next week. The center and core of this high
pressure area stay west and south of the region. There are
indications of a cold front moving through Tuesday into Tuesday
night but most of its vertical forcing and precipitation stay north
of the local region. Dry conditions are expected to continue.
Temperatures overall exhibit below normal values Friday night
through Monday night next week. Then, a little warming trend with
forecast temperatures exhibiting less of negative departure relative
to normal for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control.
SE sea breeze about to make it to KLGA and is already in at the
other coastal and metro terminals. These winds should die down
tonight and then back E-NE overnight. SE sea breezes either side
of 10 kt expected by afternoon on Thu except at KLGA, which
should hang onto an ENE wind off Long Island Sound until mid to
late afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence on winds.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon through Friday: VFR.
Friday night: MVFR cigs possible late at KGON, otherwise VFR.
Saturday: MVFR cigs possible in the afternoon. Showers with MVFR
or lower cond also possible mainly late day and at night. SE-S
winds G20kt possible in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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High pressure over the region will result in a weak pressure
gradient over the area waters, keeping winds and gusts below
advisory levels. However, with an increasing E/SE swell through
Thursday ocean seas are expected to build up to 5 feet by late
Thursday and remain elevated into Friday. A SCA has been posted
for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and will likely be
extended into Friday.
For the marine long term forecast period of Friday night through
Monday night, SCA conditions look probable for the ocean Friday
night through Saturday night due to higher seas. Otherwise, mainly
sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the long term marine forecast
period for non-ocean waters and all waters Sunday extending through
Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the
middle of next week. Some moderate to potentially heavy rain
showers Saturday into Saturday evening could present some
localized minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas
with otherwise no other hydrologic issues expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current threat for today and Thursday is expected to be
moderate. A 7-9 second period ESE swell builds from 2-3 ft to
4-5 ft during this time. With the increasing swells Thursday,
the rip current risk may increase to high during the afternoon.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...