840
FXUS61 KOKX 050201
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1001 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the region slides offshore overnight and
remains northeast of the area through Thursday. The high then
drifts east Friday as a coastal low tracks northward to our east
over the Atlantic. High pressure continues to weaken across the
area Friday night with a frontal system moving through for the
first half of the upcoming weekend. The weekend then closes out
with high pressure, which will be staying in the area for the
early to middle part of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track with some minor adjustments made to the hourly
fx database to stay closely aligned with obs.
High pressure remains in control, gradually pushing offshore
overnight into Thursday. Have gone with the lighter winds among
the guidance as this has aligned better with obs. Skies will be
clear with large scale subsidence, with perhaps a bit of ground
based radiative patchy fog in some lower lying rural locations.
Tonight, lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday, highs will be similar to what was observed today in
the mid/upper-70s under continued sunshine as MOS and BUFKIT
data continue to support mainly clear skies.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low will develop along a stalled front over the Atlantic east of
the Carolinas on Thursday. This will push northward to our east
through Friday. High pressure will continue to nose in Thursday
night, but will lose its influence as the low pushes it out of the
area.
The coastal low will be offshore to our southeast and east on
Thursday night into Friday afternoon, but will will bring increasing
cloud cover Thursday night along with PWATs above 1 inch and
dewpoints back into the mid/upper-60s. The low will also lead to an
inverted surface trough over the area, which most CAMs currently
have some showers resolving along the trough. The best timing for
these showers will be early Friday morning into early Friday
afternoon. Coverage will likely be isolated, with the best chances
for rain closer to the periphery of the low such as the eastern end
of Long Island. Rain is expected to be light and sparse, with only
an isolated thunderstorm possible.
With increased southerly flow on Friday, highs will be in the mid-
70s to low-80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the mid levels Friday night, cutoff low moves towards vicinity of
Nova Scotia. Meanwhile a much larger and deeper cutoff low in the
Great Lakes will move southeast. This larger cutoff low eventually
moves into SE Canada Saturday through Saturday night. There is
forecast the tightening height gradient with strengthening mid level
SW flow across the local area during this time period. This large
low will continue its eastward track through the remainder of the
weekend with the trough pattern remaining across the local region.
The local region stays in SW mid level flow. The trough axis moves
in Monday into Monday night. Thereafter, still overall thereafter
into the middle of next week, a quasi-zonal flow occurs across the
local region with large trough pattern remaining across SE Canada
into Northern New England.
At the surface, a low far offshore will continue to make northward
movement in the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Nova Scotia Friday
night. Meanwhile, across the local region, surface high pressure
will continue to be weakening during this time period. Mainly dry
conditions expected Friday night.
For the weekend, a frontal system approaches from the west for
Saturday. The associated warm front will be approaching from the
west during Saturday. Then for Saturday night, there is indication
of a low forming along this warm front and potentially occluding.
The low will make its way across the region Saturday night. The low
may still be nearby for early Sunday, but high pressure then makes
its return for Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Shower chances
increase Saturday and continue Saturday night and then decrease late
Saturday night into early Sunday. There is a chance for
thunderstorms as well Saturday into Saturday night, with the
combination of some weak instability and the passage of vorticity
maxima ahead of the trough axis. Dry conditions return Sunday
through the rest of the weekend.
The high pressure will continue building in from the west for early
into the middle of next week. The center and core of this high
pressure area stay west and south of the region. There are
indications of a cold front moving through Tuesday into Tuesday
night but most of its vertical forcing and precipitation stay north
of the local region. Dry conditions are expected to continue.
Temperatures overall exhibit below normal values Friday night
through Monday night next week. Then, a little warming trend with
forecast temperatures exhibiting less of negative departure relative
to normal for Tuesday through Wednesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure centered off the New England coast will remain over
the area and in control throughout the TAF period.
VFR.
The winds settle in at 5 kt or less tonight and then back E-NE. SE
sea breezes either side of 10 kt expected Thu afternoon, except at
KLGA and KBDR, which should hang onto an ENE and E wind respectively
off Long Island Sound until mid to late afternoon. The winds will
then lighten again by Thursday evening and back more to the NE.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Higher than average confidence on winds.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR with NE winds.
Friday night: MVFR cigs possible late at KGON, otherwise VFR.
Saturday: MVFR cigs possible in the afternoon. Showers with MVFR or
lower cond also possible mainly late day and at night. SE-S winds
G20kt possible in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the region will result in a weak pressure
gradient over the area waters, keeping winds and gusts below
advisory levels. However, with an increasing E/SE swell through
Thursday ocean seas are expected to build up to 5 feet by late
Thursday and remain elevated into Friday. A SCA has been posted
for Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and will likely be
extended into Friday.
For the marine long term forecast period of Friday night through
Monday night, SCA conditions look probable for the ocean Friday
night through Saturday night due to higher seas. Otherwise, mainly
sub-SCA conditions are forecast for the long term marine forecast
period for non-ocean waters and all waters Sunday extending through
Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the
middle of next week. Some moderate to potentially heavy rain
showers Saturday into Saturday evening could present some
localized minor flooding in poor drainage and low lying areas
with otherwise no other hydrologic issues expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk for rip currents on Thursday which will
likely extend into Friday with building onshore swell and
increasing easterly winds. The wave height is expected to range
from 4 to 5 feet Thursday and then increase to 5 to 6 feet on
Friday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...