264
FXUS61 KOKX 051959
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure weakens across the local area tonight. Meanwhile,
low pressure developing well out into the Atlantic will move
northward. On Friday, high pressure will continue to weaken
while the offshore low pressure continues its northward
movement. A cold front will approach the region from the west
Friday night. This cold front will move through the area late
Saturday afternoon into the evening. High pressure builds in
thereafter and will stay in control through at least the middle
of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Mid levels from the large scale numerical weather prediction
models indicates the local area will be in between a departing
shortwave and some weak ridging behind this shortwave. At the
surface, the models are conveying trough development across the
region.

Low levels are expected to moisten with clouds increasing
overnight and some patchy fog is forecast as well. There could
be a few rain showers as indicated by some CAMs but only have as
slight chance with model soundings indicating drier air above 5
kft. Any rain showers occurring may just manifest as some rain
sprinkles for parts of the region.

Lows were taken from the NBM, ranging from the lower 50s to the
lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Large scale numerical weather prediction models indicate a
consistent negative height trend Friday through Friday night. A
large cutoff low in the mid levels approaches from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface, there will be a low well offshore in
the Atlantic that will approach Nova Scotia with high pressure
further weakening across the local region. A cold front
approaches from the west for Friday night.

Similar to the previous late night, there will be abundant
clouds with some possible light showers for parts of the area in
the morning. This is again indicated by some of the CAMs. Just
have slight chance POPs again in the forecast only for the
morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday and
Friday night overall. Clouds will decrease Friday afternoon
before increasing again Friday night ahead of the approaching
cold front.

Used corrected MOS consensus for high temperatures forecast on
Friday, ranging from the mid to upper 70s. For Friday night
forecast lows, used a blend of the bias corrected MOS consensus
and the NBM, a smaller range of lows from upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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There is overall good agreement with and amplifying upper low/trough
that lifts out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states on Saturday
and across eastern Canada and the Northeast through the remainder of
the weekend. At the surface, a strong cold front will pass through
the area during the late afternoon into evening hours. The GFS and
Canadian have continued to trend faster. The trends has been more
subtle in the latest NBM, which was followed closely. So while there
may be slight adjustments in the timing over the next day or two,
don`t expect too much of break in continuity.

Best lift and forcing will pass across NW sections of the forecast
area as the cold front works from west to east across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. This is not a
moisture laden system, albeit it briefly produces PWAT values up to
around 1.5", which is above the 75th percentile. Additionally, the
airmass is rather stable, so not expecting any deep convection. Any
heavy rainfall should be localized and brief in nature. Latest
forecast rainfall totals range from a tenth to half inch, highest
across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ. Flooding is
highly unlikely at this time outside of some minor nuisance issues.

Behind the cold front Saturday night, another shot of cool, autumn
air will filter into the region for Sunday, but then quickly
moderates Monday to near normal and then slightly above for the
remainder of next week. Additionally, strong high pressure during
this time will build east from the Midwest and into the area by
midweek. This will mean dry weather once we get by Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure retreats to the northeast, remaining in control
through much of the TAF period. Low pressure passes well offshore on
Friday.

VFR through the first half of tonight. MVFR cigs expected to move
into the area after 06z Friday.

SE sea breezes either side of 10 kt early this evening, except at
KBDR, which should hang onto an E wind until later this evening. The
winds will then lighten again and back more to the NE tonight.

Some sprinkles or drizzle can not be ruled out after 06z Friday.
Confidence is low and any activity will likely be light enough to
not cause vsby restrictions.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts of 17-20 kts have been observed at coastal
terminals, but have not been consistent enough to include in the
TAFs. They will end later this evening.

Potential for MVFR cigs to start later than the TAF shows Friday
morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Potential for MVFR.

Saturday: MVFR cigs possible in the afternoon. Showers with MVFR or
lower cond also possible mainly late day and at night. SE-S winds
G20kt possible in the afternoon.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Ocean seas will continue to build going into tonight and through
Friday to around 5 to 6 ft. These SCA level ocean seas are
forecast to remain through Friday night. The SCA for the ocean
zones currently in effect has been extended through Friday
night. Aside from some wind gusts at times to near 25 kt on the
ocean Friday, wind gusts are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds through the short term period going through Friday
night. Non-ocean waters are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds.

A lingering southerly swell will keep ocean waters right around
5 ft through Saturday night. Thereafter, with high pressure
building in from the west, expect subsiding seas with sub-SCA
conditions through the middle of next week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of
next week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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The combination of a building easterly swell due to low pressure
deepening over the western Atlantic will maintain a high rip current
risk through Friday. This threat will likely continue into Saturday
as the swell will be slow to subside. This is supported by RCMOS and
NWPS rip probabilities.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW