okx-afd on 2024-09-05

209
FXUS61 KOKX 060000
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure weakens across the local area tonight. Meanwhile, low
pressure developing well out into the Atlantic will move northward.
On Friday, high pressure will continue to weaken while the offshore
low pressure continues its northward movement. A cold front will
approach the region from the west Friday night, passing through
the during the late afternoon and evening hours Saturday. High
pressure builds in thereafter and will stay in control through
much of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Minor adjustments to account for latest obs/trends, otherwise
forecast remains on track.

Mid levels from the large scale numerical weather prediction
models indicates the local area will be in between a departing
shortwave and some weak ridging behind this shortwave.

Low levels are expected to moisten with clouds increasing
overnight and some patchy fog is forecast as well. There could
be a few rain showers as indicated by some CAMs but only have as
slight chance with model soundings indicating drier air above 5
kft. Any rain showers occurring may just manifest as some rain
sprinkles for parts of the region.

Lows were taken from the NBM, ranging from the lower 50s to the
lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Large scale numerical weather prediction models indicate a
consistent negative height trend Friday through Friday night. A
large cutoff low in the mid levels approaches from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface, there will be a low well offshore in
the Atlantic that will approach Nova Scotia with high pressure
further weakening across the local region. A cold front
approaches from the west for Friday night.

Similar to the previous late night, there will be abundant
clouds with some possible light showers for parts of the area in
the morning. This is again indicated by some of the CAMs. Just
have slight chance POPs again in the forecast only for the
morning. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Friday and
Friday night overall. Clouds will decrease Friday afternoon
before increasing again Friday night ahead of the approaching
cold front.

Used corrected MOS consensus for high temperatures forecast on
Friday, ranging from the mid to upper 70s. For Friday night
forecast lows, used a blend of the bias corrected MOS consensus
and the NBM, a smaller range of lows from upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is overall good agreement with and amplifying upper low/trough
that lifts out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states on Saturday
and across eastern Canada and the Northeast through the remainder of
the weekend. At the surface, a strong cold front will pass through
the area during the late afternoon into evening hours. The GFS and
Canadian have continued to trend faster. The trends has been more
subtle in the latest NBM, which was followed closely. So while there
may be slight adjustments in the timing over the next day or two,
don`t expect too much of break in continuity.

Best lift and forcing will pass across NW sections of the forecast
area as the cold front works from west to east across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. This is not a
moisture laden system, albeit it briefly produces PWAT values up to
around 1.5", which is above the 75th percentile. Additionally, the
airmass is rather stable, so not expecting any deep convection. Any
heavy rainfall should be localized and brief in nature. Latest
forecast rainfall totals range from a tenth to half inch, highest
across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ. Flooding is
highly unlikely at this time outside of some minor nuisance issues.

Behind the cold front Saturday night, another shot of cool, autumn
air will filter into the region for Sunday, but then quickly
moderates Monday to near normal and then slightly above for the
remainder of next week. Additionally, strong high pressure during
this time will build east from the Midwest and into the area by
midweek. This will mean dry weather once we get by Saturday.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure centered to the northeast remains in control
through the TAF period.

VFR, lowering to MVFR overnight, returning to VFR early Saturday
afternoon.

E winds this evening 5-10 kt, backing NE overnight, then veering
ESE-SE Saturday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start and end times of MVFR may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: MVFR likely.

Saturday: MVFR likely. Showers with MVFR or lower cond also
possible mainly late day and at night. SE-S winds G20kt possible
in the afternoon.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Ocean seas will continue to build going into tonight and through
Friday to around 5 to 6 ft. These SCA level ocean seas are
forecast to remain through Friday night. The SCA for the ocean
zones currently in effect has been extended through Friday
night. Aside from some wind gusts at times to near 25 kt on the
ocean Friday, wind gusts are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds through the short term period going through Friday
night. Non-ocean waters are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds.

A lingering southerly swell will keep ocean waters right around
5 ft through Saturday night. Thereafter, with high pressure
building in from the west, expect subsiding seas with sub-SCA
conditions through the middle of next week.

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of
next week.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of a building easterly swell due to low pressure
deepening over the western Atlantic will maintain a high rip current
risk through Friday. This threat will likely continue into Saturday
as the swell will be slow to subside. This is supported by RCMOS and
NWPS rip probabilities.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...