872
FXUS61 KOKX 061117
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface ridging extending into the area from high pressure to our
northeast will weaken through the day today. At the same time, low
pressure will deepen as it passes well offshore. A cold front will
move through the area Saturday afternoon through the evening. High
pressure builds in from the southwest thereafter and remains
anchored over the northeast through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A surface ridge is extending into the area from high pressure
centered just east of Nova Scotia. The high will weaken through the
day today as an offshore low deepens and heads north, well east of
our area. Low level moisture increases across the area briefly this
morning with an easterly flow and the nearing of the offshore low.
This has allowed for widespread stratus and some fog across the
interior. Some of the CAMs model reflectivity continues to show
some returns moving in from the east this morning. Light returns
can bee seen on radar currently, but the majority of the
activity is offshore. Thinking anything that does fall will be
drizzle or sprinkles and not measurable. Continued to cap PoP
below slight chance. Lower confidence in the sky cover forecast
for the afternoon, but the current thinking is that partly
sunny conditions can be expected as the axis of low level
moisture shifts out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A deep upper level trough approaches the area Friday night and by
Saturday morning it becomes closed off over the Great Lakes. An
associated surface low will be centered over southern Quebec and
will drag a cold front through the area Saturday afternoon through
the evening. The timing of the system continues to speed up. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the cold front.
Given the track of the upper level low, the deepest lift will likely
be just north of our area. However, with pwats of 1.5 to 1.75
inches, there is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rain.
No hydrologic issues are expected. Continued the slight chance of
thunder, but instability continues to look weak, mainly MUCAPE
values of 500-750 J/kg. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
The area will likely be dry after midnight Saturday night.
Thereafter high pressure builds in and will bring another dry
airmass to the region to end the weekend.
Went cooler than NBM with temperatures on Saturday as the NBM temps
looked more in line with a slower frontal passage. High temps Sunday
look to be about 10 degrees below normal for early September. Cool
temperatures then continue Sunday night with good radiational
cooling conditions. Went closer to the MOS guidance here and have
lows in the mid 40s for the usual cool spots. Upper 40s to mid 50s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* A mainly dry period Monday through Thursday.
* Temperatures start off slightly below normal, warming to near
or just above normal by late week.
There has not been much change in the forecast thinking for the
extended this update and as such, stuck close to the NBM
guidance. Global models and their respective ensembles are in
decent agreement with the synoptic pattern through the period.
The upper low continues to depart the northeast on Monday with
the trough axis swinging through the local region on Monday. Sfc
flow becomes westerly then southwesterly by Monday evening
allowing for a bit of a warmup compared to Sunday, with highs in
the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints rebounding somewhat into the
mid 50s (from the upper 40s on Sunday).
Surface high pressure will continue to build north Tuesday through
Thursday resulting in an extended dry stretch of sensible weather.
Highs each day will be near or just above seasonable, in the low 80s,
and dewpoints will increase as well, peaking in the low to mid 60s
by Thursday under southerly flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
MVFR and locally IFR cigs become VFR for a period midday
MVFR cigs then return again Friday night into early Saturday
with associated light precipitation.
NE winds veering ESE-SE this afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End times of MVFR may be off by a few hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: MVFR likely.
Saturday: MVFR likely. Showers with MVFR or lower cond also possible
mainly late day and at night. SE-S winds G20kt possible in the
afternoon.
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the ocean zones as an
easterly swell around 5-6 ft at 8-9 s builds in due to offshore
low pressure. The SCA is now in effect through Saturday and may
need to be extended further. Wind gusts generally stay below 25
kt, but could briefly reach 25 kt near a cold frontal passage on
Saturday.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria Monday
through midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak across the
region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrologic issues are expected through the
middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk in effect today with a 5-6 ft
easterly swell at 8-9 s. The high risk continues on Saturday
with the easterly swell remaining and southerly winds increasing
to 10 to 15 kt ahead of a cold front. This is supported by
RCMOS and NWPS rip probabilities.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...