994
FXUS61 KOKX 062012
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues to weaken across the area tonight as a
cold front approaches from the west and deepening low pressure
passes well to the east over the western Atlantic. The cold
front will then pass through the area during the afternoon and
early evening hours on Saturday. High pressure builds into the
region Sunday and Monday, and remains in place through the end
of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Cloud cover will continue to decrease across the area into
early this evening with the forecast area sandwiched between a
cold front approaching from the west and a deepening low
pressure out in the western Atlantic. The first half of the
night will be mostly clear before low clouds increase late
tonight into the morning hours. However, based on some of latest
guidance, skies may not be as uniformly cloudy as currently
forecast by daybreak, so this will need to be revisited. ESE
winds will veer through the night at less than 10 mph. Lows will
generally be in the upper 50s to lowers 60s, but the mid 60s
for the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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There remains good agreement with an amplifying upper
low/trough that lifts out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
states on Saturday and across eastern Canada and the Northeast
through the remainder of the weekend. At the surface, a strong
cold front will pass through the area during the late afternoon
into early evening hours. Guidance continues to trend faster
with the latest CAMs showing a north-south line with the cold
front moving into western portions of the lower Hudson Valley in
the early afternoon, the NYC metro 4-5pm, with it dissipating
as it clears far eastern LI/SE CT around 8 pm. Also, the GFS
which had been showing showers in previous days in the morning
ahead of the front in a narrow corridor from south to north
across NYC and into the Lower Hudson Valley/SW CT is showing up
in the CAMs.
Best lift and forcing will pass across NW sections of the forecast
area as the cold front works from west to east across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. This is not a
moisture laden system, albeit it briefly produces PWAT values up to
around 1.5", which is above the 75th percentile. Additionally, the
airmass is rather stable, so not expecting any deep convection. Any
heavy rainfall should be localized and brief in nature. Latest
forecast rainfall totals range from a tenth to half inch, highest
across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, SW CT, and NYC. Flooding
is highly unlikely at this time outside of some minor nuisance
issues.
Behind the cold front Saturday night, gusty NW flow will bring
in another shot of cool, autumn air into the region for the
second half of the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure slowly builds into the region Sunday and
Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level low north of the region departs to
the east with its trough axis swinging through the region.
Surface high pressure will remain over the region through the end of
the week as upper level ridging builds over the area.
Expect dry conditions through the end of the week.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a good 5-10 degrees below normal,
with temperatures warming into the 70s to lower 80s on Monday.
Tuesday through Friday, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
each day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure weakens today as a cold front approaches and
eventually passes Saturday afternoon.
VFR has returned to most terminals today, but MVFR/IFR returns
tonight. Some returns to MVFR/VFR tomorrow late morning/early
afternoon before all become VFR after the frontal passage. Rain
is possible with the front 18Z-23Z on Saturday.
NE winds veering ESE-SE this afternoon. Winds weaken tonight.
Winds remain SE/S tomorrow, increasing ahead to the front 10-15
kts, G 18-22kt. Winds shift NE and remain breezy behind front
in the late afternoon Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ceiling changes between VFR and MVFR may need amendments today.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the ocean zones as an
easterly swell around 5-6 ft at 8-9 s builds in due to offshore
low pressure. The SCA is now in effect through Saturday night.
Wind gusts generally stay below 25 kt, but could briefly reach
25 kt near a cold frontal passage on Saturday.
Some leftover SCA seas and isolated gusts will be possible Sunday
morning, however by Sunday afternoon, conditions should fall below
SCA levels. Once conditions fall below SCA levels, they are expected
to remain low through much of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no significant hydrologic issues expected through next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk in effect today with a 5-6 ft
easterly swell at 8-9 s. The high risk continues on Saturday
with the easterly swell remaining and southerly winds increasing
to 10 to 15 kt ahead of a cold front. This is supported by
RCMOS and NWPS rip probabilities.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...