707
FXUS61 KOKX 062358
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to weaken across the area tonight as a
cold front approaches from the west and deepening low pressure
passes well to the east over the western Atlantic. The cold
front will then pass through the area during the afternoon and
early evening hours on Saturday. High pressure builds into the
region Sunday and Monday, and remains in place through the end
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast was updated mostly for hourly temps, dewpoints and
cloud cover over the next few hours.
The forecast area remains sandwiched between a cold front
approaching from the west and a deepening low pressure out in
the western Atlantic. Clouds increase overnight. However, based
on some of latest guidance, skies may not be as uniformly
cloudy as currently forecast by daybreak, so this will need to
be revisited. ESE winds will veer through the night at less than
10 mph. Lows mostly 60-65, warmest for NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There remains good agreement with an amplifying upper
low/trough that lifts out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
states on Saturday and across eastern Canada and the Northeast
through the remainder of the weekend. At the surface, a strong
cold front will pass through the area during the late afternoon
into early evening hours. Guidance continues to trend faster
with the latest CAMs showing a north-south line with the cold
front moving into western portions of the lower Hudson Valley in
the early afternoon, the NYC metro 4-5pm, with it dissipating
as it clears far eastern LI/SE CT around 8 pm. Also, the GFS
which had been showing showers in previous days in the morning
ahead of the front in a narrow corridor from south to north
across NYC and into the Lower Hudson Valley/SW CT is showing up
in the CAMs.
Best lift and forcing will pass across NW sections of the forecast
area as the cold front works from west to east across the area
during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. This is not a
moisture laden system, albeit it briefly produces PWAT values up to
around 1.5", which is above the 75th percentile. Additionally, the
airmass is rather stable, so not expecting any deep convection. Any
heavy rainfall should be localized and brief in nature. Latest
forecast rainfall totals range from a tenth to half inch, highest
across the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, SW CT, and NYC. Flooding
is highly unlikely at this time outside of some minor nuisance
issues.
Behind the cold front Saturday night, gusty NW flow will bring
in another shot of cool, autumn air into the region for the
second half of the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure slowly builds into the region Sunday and
Monday. Meanwhile, an upper level low north of the region departs to
the east with its trough axis swinging through the region.
Surface high pressure will remain over the region through the end of
the week as upper level ridging builds over the area.
Expect dry conditions through the end of the week.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a good 5-10 degrees below normal,
with temperatures warming into the 70s to lower 80s on Monday.
Tuesday through Friday, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
each day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure weakens tonight as a cold front approaches and
eventually passes Saturday afternoon.
VFR to start, but MVFR/IFR returns tonight. Mainly MVFR during
Saturday before all become VFR after the frontal passage mid to
late afternoon. Showers anticipated mainly with the front, but
a few showers could pass through beforehand during early
afternoon. PROB30 has been added for a chance of thunder.
Light SE winds tonight increasing late in the morning/early
afternoon to 10-15 kts, G 18-22kt. Winds shift NW and remain
breezy behind front into the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
TEMPO MVFR possible for all terminals before anticipated
prevailing start time, but also may prevail an hour or two
before forecast. Chance of IFR at KJFK and KLGA after midnight.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday-Wednesday: VFR. NW-W gusts around 20kt possible on Sun.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the ocean zones as an
easterly swell around 5-6 ft at 8-9 s builds in due to offshore
low pressure. The SCA is now in effect through Saturday night.
Wind gusts generally stay below 25 kt, but could briefly reach
25 kt near a cold frontal passage on Saturday.
Some leftover SCA seas and isolated gusts will be possible Sunday
morning, however by Sunday afternoon, conditions should fall below
SCA levels. Once conditions fall below SCA levels, they are expected
to remain low through much of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrologic issues expected through next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk in effect today with a 5-6 ft
easterly swell at 8-9 s. The high risk continues on Saturday
with the easterly swell remaining and southerly winds increasing
to 10 to 15 kt ahead of a cold front. This is supported by
RCMOS and NWPS rip probabilities.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...