559
FXUS61 KOKX 080028
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
828 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will
build in through Sunday night. A weak surface trough passes
through on Monday, with high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlantic then remaining nearby into late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front continues to track east through the region, now east
of Long Island and CT as of 00Z. Line of showers along it has
been able to produce gusts upwards of 30 or 40 kt at times,
though has since weakened and will continue to do so with loss
of surface heating. Another weak band of light rain behind the
front will follow this evening, with conditions then quickly
drying out after 3Z.
Rapid drying of the atmospheric column occurs tonight as
surface and low level high pressure build into the region, with
the upper trough remaining across the northeast. This should
allow temperatures to fall into the 40s and 50s across the
region under clear skies by daybreak, with some sites possibly
just above record daily lows.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in at the surface, but an upper level
trough remains over the northeast through Sunday night. A cooler
and drier airmass moves into the region, and high temperatures
will peak at 5 to nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Sunday night with clear skies and light winds, temperatures will
be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Predominantly dry conditions set up through late in the week.
* Warming trend with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above
normal by Thursday.
A rather tranquil and warm long term period with conditions
appearing almost entirely dry. Trough axis overhead on Monday shifts
offshore by Monday night, with heights climbing thereafter thru late
week as ridging builds in. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Midwest gradually translates east into the Mid Atlantic by
midweek, offshore by late week, then lingering nearby into next
weekend.
Shortwave rounding the departing trough may try and instigate a few
showers late Monday or Monday night, but even this looks minimal in
coverage locally with limited moisture and better forcing to the
north. Perhaps most noticeable will be an increase in cloud
cover later Monday. Thereafter, mostly clear skies prevail
through late in the week with nearby high pressure. Highs each
day will just above seasonable, in the low to mid 80s for most.
The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday and
Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak WSW flow. Overnight lows
are generally progged in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has passed through all terminals as of 00Z. A large
area of high pressure centered over the Midwest builds east
through Sunday, while low pressure lifts north across eastern
Canada.
A few lingering showers this evening, otherwise VFR with
clearing skies.
Winds will be NW with a only a few gusts the first half of the
night, then a better chance for the NYC and coastal terminals
around or after 06Z. Gusts around 20 kt become frequent at all
terminals around or shortly after 13Z Sun. Winds will the
gradually back to the WNW by 18Z. Gusts diminish during the
evening hours.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gust may be more occasional than frequent, especially through
around 06Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sun Night-Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of isold-sct aft/eve shwrs.
Tue-Thu...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SCA remains on the ocean waters until early Sunday afternoon,
mainly for seas, but occasional 25 kt gusts possible this
evening with a cold frontal passage. As high pressure builds
into the waters behind it, lowering swells will allow for ocean
seas to fall below 5 feet by early Sunday afternoon. Afterward,
winds and seas will remain below advisory through Sunday night.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria from Monday
through at least midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak
across the region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the end of
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High risk of rip current development continues into this evening for
all local Atlantic facing beaches with an easterly swell of 5 to 6
ft at 10 sec combines with increased southerly flow.
The risk drops to moderate on Sunday, and remains moderate on
Monday. While the flow will be offshore from the NW, a short
period wind wave will combine with a decreasing easterly swell
(3 ft at 9s) to allow for at least a moderate risk of rip
current development.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...DR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR