916
FXUS61 KOKX 080246
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1046 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will
build in through Sunday night. A weak surface trough passes
through on Monday, with high pressure centered over the Mid
Atlantic then remaining nearby into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few post-frontal showers moving across CT and LI will continue
to dissipate, otherwise clearing skies from west to east. NW
winds will bring in much drier and cooler air overnight.
Occasional gusts up to 20 mph expected, especially at the
coastal terminals after midnight.

Lows are forecast to fall into the 40s and 50s across the
region by daybreak, with some sites possibly just above record
daily lows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure builds in at the surface, but an upper level
trough remains over the northeast through Sunday night. A cooler
and drier airmass moves into the region, and high temperatures
will peak at 5 to nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Sunday night with clear skies and light winds, temperatures will
be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Predominantly dry conditions set up through late in the week.

* Warming trend with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above
  normal by Thursday.

A rather tranquil and warm long term period with conditions
appearing almost entirely dry. Trough axis overhead on Monday shifts
offshore by Monday night, with heights climbing thereafter thru late
week as ridging builds in. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the Midwest gradually translates east into the Mid Atlantic by
midweek, offshore by late week, then lingering nearby into next
weekend.

Shortwave rounding the departing trough may try and instigate a few
showers late Monday or Monday night, but even this looks minimal in
coverage locally with limited moisture and better forcing to the
north. Perhaps most noticeable will be an increase in cloud
cover later Monday. Thereafter, mostly clear skies prevail
through late in the week with nearby high pressure. Highs each
day will just above seasonable, in the low to mid 80s for most.
The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday and
Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak WSW flow. Overnight lows
are generally progged in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front has passed east of the area. A large area of high
pressure centered over the Midwest builds east through Sunday,
while low pressure lifts north across eastern Canada.

A few lingering showers across CT and LI, otherwise VFR with
clearing skies.

Winds will be NW with a only a few gusts the first half of the
night, then a better chance for the NYC and coastal terminals
around or after 06Z. Gusts around 20 kt become frequent at all
terminals around or shortly after 13Z Sun. Winds will the
gradually back to the WNW by 18Z. Gusts diminish during the
evening hours.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gust may be more occasional than frequent, especially through
around 06Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sun Night-Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of isold-sct aft/eve shwrs.

Tue-Thu...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains on the ocean waters until early Sunday afternoon,
mainly for seas, but occasional 25 kt gusts possible this
evening with a cold frontal passage. As high pressure builds
into the waters behind it, lowering swells will allow for ocean
seas to fall below 5 feet by early Sunday afternoon. Afterward,
winds and seas will remain below advisory through Sunday night.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria from Monday
through at least midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak
across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the end of
next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High risk of rip current development continues into this evening for
all local Atlantic facing beaches with an easterly swell of 5 to 6
ft at 10 sec combines with increased southerly flow.

The risk drops to moderate on Sunday, and remains moderate on
Monday. While the flow will be offshore from the NW, a short
period wind wave will combine with a decreasing easterly swell
(3 ft at 9s) to allow for at least a moderate risk of rip
current development.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...