230
FXUS61 KOKX 081107
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
707 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early Monday. The high briefly
weakens Monday afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves
through the area. High pressure then builds back in and remains in
control through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lowered winds for the next few hours with this update as obs
are coming in lower than previously forecast. Winds should
increase after sunrise. Because of the lower winds, some
locations have also been able to cool more efficiently than
previously thought, so have adjusted temps. Very patchy fog can
be seen on the Nighttime Microphysics satellite channel, mainly
across the interior. This fog is not dense and will remain
patchy the next couple of hours.
High pressure builds in today behind the departing cold front that
is now well offshore. While the closed upper level low lifts north
today, an upper level trough will linger over the area.
A cooler and drier airmass is being advected into the area in a NW/W
flow. An unseasonably cool day is expected, with dry conditions and
sunny skies. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s which is
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for early September.
Dewpoints will drop to the low 40s so the air will have a
comfortable feel. With deep mixing there could also be 15 to 20 mph
gusts through the afternoon.
The pressure gradient tonight is looking just a bit tighter than
guidance showed 24+ hours ago. While radiational cooling conditions
look good across the interior, went a bit warmer across the LI
Pine Barrens with the potential for more wind than previously
expected. Low to mid 40s across the interior, mid 40s for the LI
Pine Barrens and 50s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly weakens later on Monday as a surface trough
approaches. The trough and associated shortwave aloft look to pass
through Monday evening through the night. This feature has trended
stronger, but still not expecting any impact to our area. Have
added slight chance PoPs to far northwestern locations Monday
evening. However, anything that does fall may end up being
sprinkles.
A warming trend starts on Monday, with temps back up in the 70s.
Cloud cover Monday night with the aforementioned shortwave will keep
overnight lows warmer than Sunday night.
High pressure reestablishes itself over the area on Tuesday. Dry
conditions and sunny skies continue. Another great radiational
cooling night on Tuesday night will lead to lows mainly in the 40s
and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:
* Predominantly dry conditions into next weekend.
* Warming trend through the end of the week.
There has not been much change to the forecast thinking for this
period. Models continue to be in decent agreement with upper
ridging building in to the northeast and amplifying by week`s end.
The ridge axis remains to the west of the area into Saturday. At the
surface, high pressure will continue to shift north Tuesday through
Friday resulting in an extended dry stretch of sensible weather.
Highs each day will be near or just above seasonable, in the low to
mid 80s. The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday
and Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak westerly flow. Dewpoints
will also be on the increase Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow
ramps up as the surface high begins to move offshore.
The NBM was followed closely for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the northeast today.
VFR.
NW wind with gusts around 20 kt become frequent at all terminals
around or shortly after 13Z. Winds will gradually back to the
WNW by 18Z. Gusts diminish during the evening hours near or
after 00Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind gust onset and offset may be off by an hour or
two.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sun Night-Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of isold-sct aft/eve shwrs.
Tue-Thu...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters until
2PM this afternoon due to lingering 5 ft seas. There is also
potential for an occasional 25 kt gust across all waters through the
day. Winds and seas are then expected to remain below SCA
criteria through at least midweek, as the pressure gradient
remains weak across the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today. While
the flow is offshore, a 3-4 ft 5s wind wave will combine with a
2-3 ft 10s easterly swell. This combination likely results in a
moderate risk. This thinking is backed by the latest RCMOS
guidance.
The moderate risk continues on Monday with a westerly flow
a little over 10 kt and a lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at
8s.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DBR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...