418
FXUS61 KOKX 081612
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1212 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early Monday. The high briefly
weakens Monday afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves
through the area. High pressure then builds back in and remains in
control through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Good mixing this aftn so wind gusts were increased over land.
Otherwise, the fcst was on track. High pressure builds in this
aftn. While the closed upper level low lifts north today, an
upper level trough will linger over the area.
A cooler and drier airmass is being advected into the area in a NW/W
flow. An unseasonably cool day is expected, with dry conditions and
sunny skies. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s which is
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for early September.
Dewpoints will drop to the low 40s so the air will have a
comfortable feel. With deep mixing there could also be 15 to 20 mph
gusts through the afternoon.
The pressure gradient tonight is looking just a bit tighter than
guidance showed 24+ hours ago. While radiational cooling conditions
look good across the interior, went a bit warmer across the LI
Pine Barrens with the potential for more wind than previously
expected. Low to mid 40s across the interior, mid 40s for the LI
Pine Barrens and 50s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure briefly weakens later on Monday as a surface trough
approaches. The trough and associated shortwave aloft look to pass
through Monday evening through the night. This feature has trended
stronger, but still not expecting any impact to our area. Have
added slight chance PoPs to far northwestern locations Monday
evening. However, anything that does fall may end up being
sprinkles.
A warming trend starts on Monday, with temps back up in the 70s.
Cloud cover Monday night with the aforementioned shortwave will keep
overnight lows warmer than Sunday night.
High pressure reestablishes itself over the area on Tuesday. Dry
conditions and sunny skies continue. Another great radiational
cooling night on Tuesday night will lead to lows mainly in the 40s
and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Predominantly dry conditions into next weekend.
* Warming trend through the end of the week.
There has not been much change to the forecast thinking for this
period. Models continue to be in decent agreement with upper
ridging building in to the northeast and amplifying by week`s end.
The ridge axis remains to the west of the area into Saturday. At the
surface, high pressure will continue to shift north Tuesday through
Friday resulting in an extended dry stretch of sensible weather.
Highs each day will be near or just above seasonable, in the low to
mid 80s. The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday
and Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak westerly flow. Dewpoints
will also be on the increase Thursday into Friday, as southerly flow
ramps up as the surface high begins to move offshore.
The NBM was followed closely for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds over the northeast today.
VFR.
NW wind with frequent gusts around 20 kt, and occasionally 20-25 kt.
Winds will gradually back to the WNW by 18Z. Gusts diminish during
the evening hours near or after 00Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts may be near 25 kt through this afternoon.
Timing of wind gust offset may be off by an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Mon: VFR. Slight chance of isold eve shwrs northwest of the NYC
terminals.
Tue-Thu: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The SCA has been canceled for the ocean with seas expected to
remain blw 5 ft. There is the potential for an occasional 25 kt
gust across all waters today day, particularly nearshore. Winds
and seas are then expected to remain below SCA criteria through
at least midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak across
the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today. While
the flow is offshore, a 3-4 ft 5s wind wave will combine with a
2-3 ft 10s easterly swell. This combination likely results in a
moderate risk. This thinking is backed by the latest RCMOS
guidance.
The moderate risk continues on Monday with a westerly flow
a little over 10 kt and a lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at
8s.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DBR/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR/MET
MARINE...JMC/DBR/JT
HYDROLOGY...DBR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...