060
FXUS61 KOKX 090951
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will be nearby today into tonight. High pressure will
otherwise be in control through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mostly on track. Hourly temperatures and
dewpoints have been adjusted for the next few hours based on the
latest trends.
An upper trough will be over the Northeast today with shortwave lift
approaching late in the day, shifting through the forecast area
tonight. Some mid level moisture will accompany these features, and
this combination may produce an isolated shower or sprinkle in spots
north of the city from late day into the first half of tonight.
Seasonable high temperatures of 75-80 across the area. NBM with a
few local adjustments was used for low temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights slowly rise aloft, allowing for surface high pressure to
gradually build into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. The
center of this system then shifts through on Wednesday.
Sunny for Tuesday with highs a degree or two warmer than today. Good
radiational cooling conditions then set up for at least part of
Tuesday night. There may be cirrus sneaking in overnight, but with a
clear start and light to calm winds, thinking that temperatures will
still manage to drop into the mid-upper 40s across the northernmost
zones and Pine Barrens region. Lows otherwise around 60 for the
city, with 50s elsewhere.
Mostly sunny for Wednesday with perhaps some cirrus still around
mainly in the morning. High temperatures similar to Tuesday`s. As
for lows, some uncertainty regarding how much cirrus can reenter the
picture. Have therefore gone close to NBM for the areas that
typically experience stronger radiational cooling rather than
blending in cooler MOS guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The period should feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will be slow to
move as the westerlies become shunted well north into Canada.
Temps should reach the lower 80s on Thu, with widespread lower/mid
80s and perhaps a few upper 80s readings in the urban corridor of NE
NJ on Fri-Sat. Low temps generally fall back into the 60s along the
coast, and 50s across the interior. As we go into the weekend, a
light onshore flow may result in some hybrid radiation/advection low
clouds and patchy fog each late night and early morning as temps
fall to around or below the previous afternoon`s min dewpoints.
River valley fog is also likely as well.
Temps on Sunday may be a touch less warm as heights aloft fall
across the area and across New England in response to an upper
trough digging SE across Atlantic Canada, but will still be above
normal, with upper 70s/lower 80s expected.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds in today. A weak low pressure trough
will approach from the NW late today into tonight. VFR.
Winds W-NW less than 10 kt overnight should back to the W-SW
today, becoming gusty 15-20 kt this afternoon. Gusts diminish
early in the evening.
There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF/KGON this
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
W to SW winds 10-15kt today and tonight should limit seas on the
ocean to 4 ft during the period. Lighter winds are expected tomorrow
and Wednesday as a high pressure center slowly drifts into the
region. Seas will also diminish in response to this. Sub-
advisory conditions continue through Friday with a weak pressure
gradient and no appreciable swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today and with a
lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8 seconds. A low risk of
rip current development is anticipated for Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...