623
FXUS61 KOKX 091152
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak trough will be nearby today into tonight. High pressure
will otherwise be in control through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The forecast is mostly on track. Hourly temperatures and
dewpoints have been adjusted for the next few hours based on
the latest trends.
An upper trough will be over the Northeast today with shortwave
lift approaching late in the day, shifting through the
forecast area tonight. Some mid level moisture will accompany
these features, and this combination may produce an isolated
shower or sprinkle in spots north of the city from late day into
the first half of tonight. Seasonable high temperatures of
75-80 across the area. NBM with a few local adjustments was used
for low temps.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Heights slowly rise aloft, allowing for surface high pressure to
gradually build into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night.
The center of this system then shifts through on Wednesday.
Sunny for Tuesday with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
Good radiational cooling conditions then set up for at least
part of Tuesday night. There may be cirrus sneaking in
overnight, but with a clear start and light to calm winds,
thinking that temperatures will still manage to drop into the
mid-upper 40s across the northernmost zones and Pine Barrens
region. Lows otherwise around 60 for the city, with 50s
elsewhere.
Mostly sunny for Wednesday with perhaps some cirrus still around
mainly in the morning. High temperatures similar to Tuesday`s.
As for lows, some uncertainty regarding how much cirrus can
reenter the picture. Have therefore gone close to NBM for the
areas that typically experience stronger radiational cooling
rather than blending in cooler MOS guidance.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The period should feature an extended period of warm, dry
weather underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will
be slow to move as the westerlies become shunted well north into
Canada.
Temps should reach the lower 80s on Thu, with widespread
lower/mid 80s and perhaps a few upper 80s readings in the
urban corridor of NE NJ on Fri-Sat. Low temps generally fall
back into the 60s along the coast, and 50s across the interior.
As we go into the weekend, a light onshore flow may result in
some hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog each
late night and early morning as temps fall to around or below
the previous afternoon`s min dewpoints. River valley fog is also
likely as well.
Temps on Sunday may be a touch less warm as heights aloft fall
across the area and across New England in response to an upper
trough digging SE across Atlantic Canada, but will still be
above normal, with upper 70s/lower 80s expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds in today. A weak low pressure trough
will approach from the NW late today into tonight.
Generally W flow 5-10 kt this morning should become WSW 10-15 kt
this afternoon, with some gusts 15-20 kt especially at the NYC
metros. Winds should back more SW at the coastal terminals and
SSW at KJFK mid to late afternoon.
SW flow 5-10 kt tonight becomes W-WNW overnight.
There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF/KGON this
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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W-SW winds 10-15 kt through tonight should limit ocean seas to 4
ft during that time frame. Lighter winds are expected Tue-Wed as
a high pressure center slowly drifts into the region.
Seas will also diminish in response to this. Sub-advisory
conditions continue through Friday with a weak pressure gradient
and no appreciable swell.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today and with a
lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8 seconds. A low risk of
rip current development is anticipated for Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC