371
FXUS61 KOKX 091831
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front approaches this afternoon into tonight. This
front moves across early Tuesday. High pressure will otherwise
be in control through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure is to the southwest of the region this afternoon
with a cold front approaching from the west.
Cumulus clouds are developing and moving in from the west this
afternoon. However, still expecting partly to mostly sunny sky
conditions. SW wind gusts have developed along southern portions
of the region. Temperatures and dewpoints on track. The max
temperatures will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
Tonight, the cold front continues to approach the area. This front
will eventually move across early Tuesday.
Tonight, the CAMs continue to indicate isolated to widely scattered
shower activity from the middle of this evening through the first
half of the overnight. This scenario has been depicted with both the
CAMs model runs initialized at both 00Z September 9th and 12Z
September 9th. The showers weaken and eventually dissipate as they
move farther east.
The forecast for the shower tonight remains low with probability,
with POPs of less than 30 percent. These POPs in the forecast are
mainly in the interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW CT
portion of the forecast region.
The lows for tonight used the bias corrected MOS consensus, which
leaned more towards warmer side of MOS for interior areas. Still
feel that the coast will have relatively less clouds and more
opportunity for radiational cooling. The range of lows forecast is
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights slowly rise aloft, allowing for surface high pressure to
gradually build into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night.
The center of this system then shifts through on Wednesday.
Sunny for Tuesday with highs a degree or two warmer than today.
Good radiational cooling conditions then set up for at least
part of Tuesday night. There may be cirrus sneaking in
overnight, but with a clear start and light to calm winds,
thinking that temperatures will still manage to drop into the
mid-upper 40s across the northernmost zones and Pine Barrens
region. Lows otherwise around 60 for the city, with 50s
elsewhere.
Mostly sunny for Wednesday with perhaps some cirrus still around
mainly in the morning. High temperatures similar to Tuesday`s.
As for lows, some uncertainty regarding how much cirrus can
reenter the picture. Have therefore gone close to NBM for the
areas that typically experience stronger radiational cooling
rather than blending in cooler MOS guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period should feature an extended period of warm, dry
weather underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will
be slow to move as the westerlies become shunted well north into
Canada.
Temps should reach the lower 80s on Thu, with widespread
lower/mid 80s and perhaps a few upper 80s readings in the
urban corridor of NE NJ on Fri-Sat. Low temps generally fall
back into the 60s along the coast, and 50s across the interior.
As we go into the weekend, a light onshore flow may result in
some hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog each
late night and early morning as temps fall to around or below
the previous afternoon`s min dewpoints. River valley fog is also
likely as well.
Temps on Sunday may be a touch less warm as heights aloft fall
across the area and across New England in response to an upper
trough digging SE across Atlantic Canada, but will still be
above normal, with upper 70s/lower 80s expected.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak low pressure trough will approach from the NW late today
into tonight.
Generally looking at a WSW winds around 10-15 kt this
afternoon, with some gusts 15-20 kt especially at the NYC
metros. Winds should back more SW at the coastal terminals and
SSW at KJFK mid to late afternoon. Winds tonight then become
light and eventually NW, behind a cold frontal passage early
Tuesday morning.
There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF this evening,
however confidence too low to include in the TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue-Sat: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
W-SW winds 10-15 kt through tonight should limit ocean seas to 4
ft during that time frame. Lighter winds are expected Tue-Wed as
a high pressure center slowly drifts into the region.
Seas will also diminish in response to this. Sub-advisory
conditions continue through Friday with a weak pressure gradient
and no appreciable swell.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development today and with a
lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8 seconds. A low risk of
rip current development is anticipated for Tuesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BG
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC