214
FXUS61 KOKX 091958
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front approaches tonight. This front moves across
early Tuesday. High pressure will otherwise be in control
through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight, the cold front continues to approach the area. This
front will eventually move across early Tuesday.

Ahead of the cold front and with some positive vorticity
advection with an upper level trough axis moving through, a few
showers will be possible. Moisture will be quite limited
however.

Tonight, the CAMs continue to indicate isolated to widely
scattered shower activity from the middle of this evening
through the first half of the overnight. This scenario has been
depicted with both the CAMs model runs initialized at both 00Z
September 9th and 12Z September 9th. The showers weaken and
eventually dissipate as they move farther east.

The forecast for the shower tonight remains low with
probability, with POPs of less than 30 percent. These POPs in
the forecast are mainly in the interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson
Valley and interior SW CT portion of the forecast region.

The lows for tonight used the bias corrected MOS consensus,
which leaned more towards warmer side of MOS for interior areas.
Still feel that the coast will have relatively less clouds and
more opportunity for radiational cooling, especially early
Tuesday morning. The range of lows forecast is from the lower
50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The mid levels show a consistent ridging trend. The trough exits
east of the region Tuesday. The mid level flow transitions from
northwest to more west.

At the surface, after the cold frontal passage early, high
pressure returns, building in through Wednesday. High pressure
begins to slide offshore Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

NW flow will present downsloping on Tuesday, allowing for
coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland
locations. Some gusts between 15 and 20 mph can be expected
near the coast, but are not expected to be frequent.

Used the bias corrected MOS consensus for highs on Tuesday. The
high temperatures range from upper 70s to around 80 along much
of the coast to low to mid 70s inland.

Winds diminish Tuesday night and then become a light SE flow on
Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain under 10 mph overall
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range from
lower 40s to lower 60s. Highs more in the low to mid 70s
forecast on Wednesday along the coast with mid to upper 70s
inland for highs Wednesday.

Used a MAV/MET blend for lows Tuesday night and for highs on
Wednesday. This MAV/MET blend better depicted the vast range of
lows forecast for Tuesday night with optimal radiational
cooling conditions and it also better depicted the cooler
locations along the coast Wednesday with the light onshore
flow.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The period will feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will be slow
to move east through the beginning of next week.

Temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night will be near
normal, and 2 to near 5 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures then fall back to near normal Sunday night and Monday
with a light onshore flow. The onshore flow may result in some
hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog Sunday night
into Monday morning. River valley fog is also likely as well.

The NBM was followed through the extended period.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak low pressure trough will approach from the NW late today
into tonight.

Generally looking at a WSW winds around 10-15 kt this
afternoon, with some gusts 15-20 kt especially at the NYC
metros. Winds should back more SW at the coastal terminals and
SSW at KJFK mid to late afternoon. Winds tonight then become
light and eventually NW, behind a cold frontal passage early
Tuesday morning.

There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF this evening,
however confidence too low to include in the TAF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon. Wind direction may
occasionally be from the NW.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tue-Sat: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
with a weak pressure gradient in place.

With high pressure in control winds and seas remain below advisory
levels Wednesday night through the weekend.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through tonight. Rain
amounts with any showers, if they develop, are expected to
remain under a quarter of an inch.

Thereafter, no hydrologic impacts are expected through next
Monday with high pressure in control.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip current development through this
evening, and a low risk Tuesday through Wednesday evening.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET