974
FXUS61 KOKX 092346
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
746 PM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front approaches tonight, and across early Tuesday.
High pressure will otherwise be in control through next Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Updated the probabilities based on latest radar, and HRRR,
slowing the timing, and expanding slightly in areal coverage to
the south. The showers weaken and eventually dissipate as they
move farther east. Also, updated the hourly temperatures and dew
points based on current conditions.
Tonight, a cold front continues to approach the area. This
front will eventually move across early Tuesday.
Ahead of the cold front and with some positive vorticity
advection with an upper level trough axis moving through, a few
showers will be possible. Moisture will be quite limited
however.
The lows for tonight used the bias corrected MOS consensus,
which leaned more towards warmer side of MOS for interior areas.
Still feel that the coast will have relatively less clouds and
more opportunity for radiational cooling, especially early
Tuesday morning. The range of lows forecast is from the lower
50s to lower 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid levels show a consistent ridging trend. The trough exits
east of the region Tuesday. The mid level flow transitions from
northwest to more west.
At the surface, after the cold frontal passage early, high
pressure returns, building in through Wednesday. High pressure
begins to slide offshore Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
NW flow will present downsloping on Tuesday, allowing for
coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland
locations. Some gusts between 15 and 20 mph can be expected
near the coast, but are not expected to be frequent.
Used the bias corrected MOS consensus for highs on Tuesday. The
high temperatures range from upper 70s to around 80 along much
of the coast to low to mid 70s inland.
Winds diminish Tuesday night and then become a light SE flow on
Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain under 10 mph overall
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range from
lower 40s to lower 60s. Highs more in the low to mid 70s
forecast on Wednesday along the coast with mid to upper 70s
inland for highs Wednesday.
Used a MAV/MET blend for lows Tuesday night and for highs on
Wednesday. This MAV/MET blend better depicted the vast range of
lows forecast for Tuesday night with optimal radiational
cooling conditions and it also better depicted the cooler
locations along the coast Wednesday with the light onshore
flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period will feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will be slow
to move east through the beginning of next week.
Temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night will be near
normal, and 2 to near 5 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures then fall back to near normal Sunday night and Monday
with a light onshore flow. The onshore flow may result in some
hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog Sunday night
into Monday morning. River valley fog is also likely as well.
The NBM was followed through the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A weak cold front will move through tonight. High pressure
builds in behind on Tuesday.
Generally looking at a WSW winds around at around 10 kt or less,
with winds diminishing as the evening and night progresses. An
isolated gust to 15-20 kt is possible through 02Z. Winds become
light and variable over the outlying terminals and possibly
into the metro terminals. Wind increase Tuesday morning to 5 to
around 10 kt early in the morning through the afternoon. Wind
direction will be out of the NW, with some influence from
influence with potential of sea breeze development along coastal
terminals such as KJFK, KISP, KGON, and KBDR. Wind direction at
these terminals are bit more uncertain for Tuesday afternoon.
There is the slight chance of a shower at KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, and
KEWR this evening, however confidence too low to include in the
TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An isolated gust of 15 to 20 kt is possible through 02Z. Wind
direction at KJFK is uncertain for Tuesday afternoon, and may be
more S if sea breeze moves through.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue Night-Sat: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to the winds and seas at this time.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday
with a weak pressure gradient in place.
With high pressure in control winds and seas remain below advisory
levels Wednesday night through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Monday with
high pressure in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development through this
evening, and a low risk Tuesday through Wednesday evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...