375
FXUS61 KOKX 100600
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control through Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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The forecast has been updated to remove any mention of showers.
The sub-cloud layer is dry and local terminal Doppler radars
reveal rain having a hard time reaching the surface. Expecting
nothing more than isolated sprinkles at this point. High
pressure will otherwise be in control tonight as a surface
trough shifts away to our east. Clouds generally diminishing
across the area, and low temperatures range from the low 50s
well inland to the low 60s in the city.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The mid levels show a consistent ridging trend. The trough exits
east of the region Tuesday. The mid level flow transitions from
northwest to more west.

At the surface, after the cold frontal passage early, high
pressure returns, building in through Wednesday. High pressure
begins to slide offshore Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather
conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.

NW flow will present downsloping on Tuesday, allowing for
coastal locations to be relatively warmer than inland
locations. Some gusts between 15 and 20 mph can be expected
near the coast, but are not expected to be frequent.

Used the bias corrected MOS consensus for highs on Tuesday. The
high temperatures range from upper 70s to around 80 along much
of the coast to low to mid 70s inland.

Winds diminish Tuesday night and then become a light SE flow on
Wednesday. Winds are expected to remain under 10 mph overall
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night range from
lower 40s to lower 60s. Highs more in the low to mid 70s
forecast on Wednesday along the coast with mid to upper 70s
inland for highs Wednesday.

Used a MAV/MET blend for lows Tuesday night and for highs on
Wednesday. This MAV/MET blend better depicted the vast range of
lows forecast for Tuesday night with optimal radiational
cooling conditions and it also better depicted the cooler
locations along the coast Wednesday with the light onshore
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period will feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath an amplifying upper level ridge, that will be slow
to move east through the beginning of next week.

Temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday night will be near
normal, and 2 to near 5 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday.
Temperatures then fall back to near normal Sunday night and Monday
with a light onshore flow. The onshore flow may result in some
hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog Sunday night
into Monday morning. River valley fog is also likely as well.

The NBM was followed through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR as a weak sfc trough moves through overnight, followed by
building high pressure.

WSW-W flow 10 kt or less should shift NW after the trough
passage from about 11Z-13Z. Coastal terminals should experience
somewhat of a sea breeze, with direction backing more to the
WSW in the afternoon, exact timing uncertain. Light NW-N flow
expected tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A few gusts 15-18 kt possible this afternoon, have mentioned in
TAF only at KEWR for now. Sea breeze direction/timing at KJFK
late today and early this evening uncertain, and it is possible
that direction may fluctuate between NW-SW.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Mainly VFR. Some late night/early morning low clouds/patchy fog
may be possible at KGON/KBDR/KISP/KJFK Fri night and Sat
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through this weekend
with high pressure in control.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches through Wednesday.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...