738
FXUS61 KOKX 100723
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
323 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper ridge axis to our west flattens through the period as it heads
toward us. This will promote weak surface ridging over the forecast
area with the ridge axis reaching us late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Sunny today with the wind mainly from the NW at 5-10 mph,
but late day sea breezes will be possible for some coastal areas.
High temperatures near normal from the mid 70s to around 80.
With the high pressure center nearing us tonight, a light to calm
wind will allow for good radiational cooling conditions at least for
the first half of the night before some cirrus tries to offset this
cooling late tonight. Used a MET/MAV MOS blend across the northern
zones and the Pine Barrens region, which typically performs better
than the deterministic NBM in this setup. Lows falling into the mid
and upper 40s for these areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered over the Northeast during Wednesday
and then lingers just offshore on Thursday. Dry weather continues
through the period with seasonable high temperatures both days,
although Thursday will be a little warmer than Wednesday. Low
temperatures near normal as well, along with enhanced cooling in the
typical areas. Patchy fog will possible too both nights away from
urban areas, primarily along the river valleys.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The period will feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath a quasi-stationary upper level high. This high may start
to weaken on Mon as a cold front moves through eastern Canada and as
low pressure starts to develop somewhere off the Southeast coast.
High temps Fri-Sat should reach the lower/mid 80s, and slightly
lower temps for Sunday/Mon with upper 70s/lower 80s, as a more
maritime E-SE flow develops.
Low temps each day should be fairly similar, mainly 60-65 for the
NYC metro area and along the coast, and 55-60 inland. This should
promote development of river valley fog each late night/early
morning, and possibly some hybrid radiation/advection low clouds and
patchy fog low clouds and fog near the coast Fri night and Sat
night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as a weak sfc trough moves through overnight, followed by
building high pressure.
WSW-W flow 10 kt or less should shift NW after the trough
passage from about 11Z-13Z. Coastal terminals should experience
somewhat of a sea breeze, with direction backing more to the
WSW in the afternoon, exact timing uncertain. Light NW-N flow
expected tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 15-18 kt possible this afternoon, have mentioned in
TAF only at KEWR for now. Sea breeze direction/timing at KJFK
late today and early this evening uncertain, and it is possible
that direction may fluctuate between NW-SW.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Mainly VFR. Some late night/early morning low clouds/patchy fog
may be possible at KGON/KBDR/KISP/KJFK Fri night and Sat
night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through this weekend
with high pressure in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a low risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today through Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...