767
FXUS61 KOKX 101656
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1256 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast adjusted for hourly temperatures with slight adjustments
for max temperatures. Otherwise, forecast on track.
Upper ridge axis to our west flattens through the period as it
heads toward us. This will promote weak surface ridging over the
forecast area with the ridge axis reaching us late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Sunny today with the wind mainly from the NW
at 5-10 mph, but late day sea breezes will be possible for some
coastal areas. High temperatures near normal from the mid 70s
to around 80.
With the high pressure center nearing us tonight, a light to
calm wind will allow for good radiational cooling conditions
at least for the first half of the night before some cirrus
tries to offset this cooling late tonight. Used a MET/MAV MOS
blend across the northern zones and the Pine Barrens region,
which typically performs better than the deterministic NBM in
this setup. Low temps falling to the mid and upper 40s for these
areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains centered over the Northeast during
Wednesday and then lingers just offshore on Thursday. Dry
weather continues through the period with seasonable high
temperatures both days, although Thursday will be a little
warmer than Wednesday. Low temperatures near normal as well,
along with enhanced cooling in the typical areas. Patchy fog
will possible too both nights away from urban areas, primarily
along the river valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period will feature an extended period of warm, dry weather
underneath a quasi-stationary upper level high. This high may
start to weaken on Mon as a cold front moves through eastern
Canada and as low pressure starts to develop somewhere off the
Southeast coast. High temps Fri-Sat should reach the lower/mid
80s, and slightly lower temps for Sunday/Mon with upper
70s/lower 80s, as a more maritime E-SE flow develops.
Low temps each day should be fairly similar, mainly 60-65 for
the NYC metro area and along the coast, and 55-60 inland. This
should promote development of river valley fog each late
night/early morning, and possibly also some hybrid
radiation/advection low clouds and patchy fog near the coast
Fri night and Sat night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds in.
NW flow around 10 kt expected. Sea breezes look less certain
for the coastal terminals, and winds there may back W rather
than SW for a time this afternoon. Winds become light N-NE late
this evening/overnight.
S/SE sea breezes are expected on Wednesday. Any locations that
don`t see a sea breeze will eventually become S/SE later in the
afternoon with the synoptic flow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An ocnl gust 15-18 kt possible this afternoon, mainly for KEWR.
Sea breeze at KJFK looks less certain and may remain just S of
the terminal late this afternoon, with wind either backing W or
fluctuating between NW-SW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Mainly VFR. Some late night/early morning low clouds/patchy fog
may be possible at KGON/KBDR/KISP/KJFK Fri night and Sat
night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions with high pressure in control. Conditions
remain below SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches through
Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...