618
FXUS61 KOKX 111126
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
726 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will strengthen across the area mid to late week,
and remain in control through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Expect a mostly sunny day today, with AM cirrus moving off to
the east by afternoon. Light N-NE flow should become SE 5-10
mph by afternoon, perhaps more southerly right along immediate
south facing shorelines. Temps in coastal sections may be a
touch less warm than those of yesterday, with highs in the
mid/upper 70s, but should be a touch warmer inland, with upper
70s/lower 80s. Mostly clear skies tonight and diminishing winds
should lead to good radiational cooling, with lows 60-65
in/around NYC and in the 50s elsewhere. With tonight being the
first night of onshore flow do not expect fog development except
in the river valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly dry conditions will continue with sfc high pressure
mostly in control. A shortwave trough digging southward across
New England may touch off an isolated shower or two across SE CT
toward evening. Otherwise, with sfc high pressure strengthening
and heights rising aloft expect progressively warmer
conditions despite onshore flow, with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s on Thu, and some mid 80s possible on Fri across NE
NJ and some of the interior valleys. The continued onshore
flow and nighttime radiational cooling should promote more in
the way of fog development both Thu night and Fri night
inland, also across coastal SE CT and eastern Long Island, with
low temps mainly in the 50s inland and across the Long Island
Pine Barrens region, and 60s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period will feature an extended period of warm and dry
weather with deep-layered ridging over the Northeast.
Surface high pressure will remain stretched across the
Northeast into the western Atlantic. The high may weaken going
into Monday night and Tuesday as low pressure potentially
develops off the Southeast coast and tracks north. Low
temperatures will be near normal through the period with daytime
high temperatures a couple degrees above normal for most of the
days. Saturday appears to be the warmest with highs mostly in
the lower/mid 80s. There is the chance of valley fog and
radiational fog each night through Monday night. Have included
this in the weather grids for only Friday morning and late
Saturday night/early Sunday morning for the time being.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains in control.
VFR. N-NE winds under 10kt, then SE to S sea breezes develop
late morning into early afternoon with speeds at around 10kt or
less. Light and variable winds for tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of sub-VFR fog/clouds for
the non-city terminals each late night/early morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet on the waters with high pressure in control and swell no
higher than 2 ft for most of the period. Swell may build to 3 ft
on Sunday in response to low pressure developing off the
Southeast coast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk at the NYC and eastern
Suffolk beaches today due to incoming 2-ft long period swell and
developing onshore flow. The moderate risk will continue for the
NYC beaches for Thu, where afternoon onshore flow will be
stronger.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...